Regular season ·

USC beat UCLA

No. 7 USC10-148
No. 16 UCLA8-345Final
Sat, Nov 19 · Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif. · Crowd 70,865 · 64°, clearFOX

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

No. 7 USC beat No. 16 UCLA by 3 points.

How the game turned

USC aheadUCLA aheadBiggest swingLow: 18%
12345

Q4 6:38 USC 48, UCLA 45

USC 62% to win

Thompson-Robinson 3-yd TD pass to Ezeike, cuts it to 48-45

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 2:29 · USC 0, UCLA 7USC's win chance fell from 55% to 46%.Thompson-Robinson 1-yd TD run, UCLA goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q1 1:47 · USC 0, UCLA 14USC's win chance fell from 45% to 22%.Thompson-Robinson 30-yd TD pass to Ezeike, UCLA leads 14-0
  3. 3Q2 3:48 · USC 10, UCLA 21USC's win chance fell from 40% to 21%.Thompson-Robinson 1-yd TD run, UCLA leads 21-10
  4. 4Q3 8:50 · USC 27, UCLA 24USC's win chance rose from 51% to 67%.Williams 35-yd TD pass to Addison, USC goes ahead 27-24
  5. 5Q4 6:38 · USC 48, UCLA 45USC's win chance fell from 90% to 62%.Thompson-Robinson 3-yd TD pass to Ezeike, cuts it to 48-45

USC's lowest chance to win was 18 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 6:38 left in the 4th quarter, UCLA's chance to win went from 10 percent to 38 percent when UCLA scored a touchdown.

The score went from USC 48, UCLA 38 to USC 48, UCLA 45.

The play: Thompson-Robinson 3-yd TD pass to Ezeike, cuts it to 48-45.

What happened next

  1. UCLA's next game: W 35-28 at California, Nov 25

    6 days later

  2. USC's next game: W 38-27 vs Notre Dame, Nov 26

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 19, 2022: UCLA 38, USC 20, Nov 18, 2023

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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