Regular season ·

TCU beat Baylor

No. 4 TCU11-029
Baylor6-528Final
Sat, Nov 19 · McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas · Crowd 44,393 · 40°, cloudyFOX

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

TCU had a 9 percent chance to win with 9:00 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 29-28, November 19, 2022.

How the game turned

TCU aheadBaylor aheadBiggest swingLow: 9%
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Q4 0:00 TCU 29, Baylor 28

TCU 100% to win

Kell 40-yd field goal, TCU wins it 29-28

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 9:15 · TCU 0, Baylor 7TCU's win chance fell from 44% to 40%.Jones 10-yd TD run, Baylor goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 12:05 · TCU 7, Baylor 14TCU's win chance fell from 54% to 41%.Johnson 2-yd TD run, Baylor goes ahead 14-7
  3. 3Q3 5:34 · TCU 20, Baylor 14TCU's win chance rose from 62% to 79%.Duggan 26-yd TD pass to Henderson, TCU goes ahead 20-14
  4. 4Q4 14:54 · TCU 20, Baylor 21TCU's win chance fell from 69% to 52%.Shapen 12-yd TD pass to Johnson, Baylor goes ahead 21-20
  5. 5Q4 0:00 · TCU 29, Baylor 28TCU's win chance rose from 35% to 100%.Kell 40-yd field goal, TCU wins it 29-28

TCU's lowest chance to win was 9 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:00 left in the 4th quarter, TCU's chance to win went from 35 percent to 99 percent when TCU kicked a field goal.

The score went from TCU 26, Baylor 28 to TCU 29, Baylor 28.

The play: Kell 40-yd field goal, TCU wins it 29-28.

What happened next

  1. Baylor's next game: L 27-38 at Texas, Nov 25

    6 days later

  2. TCU's next game: W 62-14 vs Iowa State, Nov 26

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 19, 2022: TCU 42, Baylor 17, Nov 18, 2023

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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