Regular season ·
North Carolina beat Duke
Records are after this game.
North Carolina beat Duke by 3 points.
How the game turned
Q4 0:16 North Carolina 38, Duke 35
North Carolina 56% to win
Maye 8-yd TD pass to Green, North Carolina goes ahead 38-35
Big moments
- 1Q1 13:18 · North Carolina 3, Duke 0North Carolina's win chance rose from 72% to 75%.Burnette 45-yd field goal, North Carolina goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q1 8:30 · North Carolina 3, Duke 7North Carolina's win chance fell from 67% to 59%.Waters 2-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q1 4:38 · North Carolina 10, Duke 7North Carolina's win chance rose from 60% to 66%.Maye 10-yd TD pass to Morales, North Carolina goes ahead 10-7
- 4Q2 5:16 · North Carolina 10, Duke 14North Carolina's win chance fell from 64% to 59%.Leonard 74-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 14-10
- 5Q3 9:01 · North Carolina 24, Duke 21North Carolina's win chance rose from 59% to 74%.Green 1-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 24-21
- 6Q4 10:12 · North Carolina 31, Duke 35North Carolina's win chance fell from 64% to 37%.Waters 38-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 35-31
- 7Q4 0:16 · North Carolina 38, Duke 35North Carolina's win chance rose from 29% to 56%.Maye 8-yd TD pass to Green, North Carolina goes ahead 38-35
North Carolina's lowest chance to win was 18 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
How the lead changed
North Carolina took the lead for good with 0:16 left in the 4th quarter, North Carolina 38, Duke 35.
What happened next
Duke's next game: W 45-21 at Miami, Oct 22
7 days laterNorth Carolina's next game: W 42-24 vs Pittsburgh, Oct 29
14 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 15, 2022: North Carolina 47, Duke 45, Nov 11, 2023
about 13 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.