Regular season ·
Kentucky beat Louisville
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Kentucky had a 10 percent chance to win with 2:48 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 38-31, November 25, 2023.
How the game turned
Q4 1:02 Kentucky 38, Louisville 31
Kentucky 84% to win
Davis 37-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 38-31
Big moments
- 1Q1 3:40 · Kentucky 0, Louisville 7Kentucky's win chance fell from 30% to 20%.Jordan 1-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 4:25 · Kentucky 7, Louisville 10Travelstead 46-yd field goal, Louisville goes ahead 10-7
- 3Q4 8:37 · Kentucky 31, Louisville 24Kentucky's win chance rose from 54% to 77%.Leary 20-yd TD pass to Davis, Kentucky goes ahead 31-24
- 4Q4 2:33 · Kentucky 31, Louisville 31Kentucky's win chance fell from 79% to 46%.Plummer 21-yd TD pass to Huggins-Bruce, ties it 31-31
- 5Q4 1:02 · Kentucky 38, Louisville 31Kentucky's win chance rose from 43% to 84%.Davis 37-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 38-31
Kentucky's lowest chance to win was 10 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 1:02 left in the 4th quarter, Kentucky's chance to win went from 43 percent to 84 percent when Kentucky scored a touchdown.
The score went from Kentucky 31, Louisville 31 to Kentucky 38, Louisville 31.
The play: Davis 37-yd TD run, Kentucky goes ahead 38-31.
What happened next
Louisville's next game: L 6-16 vs Florida State, Dec 2
7 days laterKentucky's next game: L 35-38 vs Clemson in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl, Dec 29
34 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 25, 2023: Louisville 41, Kentucky 14, Nov 30, 2024
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.