Regular season ·
Virginia beat North Carolina
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Virginia had a 3 percent chance to win in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 31-27, October 21, 2023.
How the game turned
Q4 8:51 Virginia 31, North Carolina 27
Virginia 42% to win
Muskett 14-yd TD pass to Washington, Virginia goes ahead 31-27
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:05 · Virginia 7, North Carolina 0Virginia's win chance rose from 8% to 13%.Hollins 11-yd TD run, Virginia goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q1 1:56 · Virginia 14, North Carolina 7Virginia's win chance rose from 11% to 16%.Hollins 3-yd TD run, Virginia goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q2 0:00 · Virginia 14, North Carolina 17Burnette 43-yd field goal, North Carolina goes ahead 17-14
- 4Q4 12:08 · Virginia 24, North Carolina 27Burnette 27-yd field goal, North Carolina goes ahead 27-24
- 5Q4 8:51 · Virginia 31, North Carolina 27Virginia's win chance rose from 11% to 42%.Muskett 14-yd TD pass to Washington, Virginia goes ahead 31-27
Virginia's lowest chance to win was 3 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 8:51 left in the 4th quarter, Virginia's chance to win went from 11 percent to 42 percent when Virginia scored a touchdown.
The score went from Virginia 24, North Carolina 27 to Virginia 31, North Carolina 27.
The play: Muskett 14-yd TD pass to Washington, Virginia goes ahead 31-27.
What happened next
Virginia's next game: L 26-29 at Miami, Oct 28
7 days laterNorth Carolina's next game: L 42-46 at Georgia Tech, Oct 28
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 21, 2023: North Carolina 41, Virginia 14, Oct 26, 2024
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.