Regular season ·
Texas State beat Baylor
Records are after this game.
Texas State beat Baylor by 11 points.
How the game turned
Q2 0:48 Texas State 28, Baylor 13
Texas State 54% to win
Jeter 1-yd TD run, Texas State leads 28-13
Big moments
- 1Q1 10:17 · Texas State 0, Baylor 3Hankins 23-yd field goal, Baylor goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q1 7:33 · Texas State 7, Baylor 3Texas State's win chance rose from 6% to 8%.Finley 10-yd TD pass to Mahdi, Texas State goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q2 9:11 · Texas State 21, Baylor 6Texas State's win chance rose from 19% to 36%.Finley 27-yd TD pass to Davenport, Texas State leads 21-6
- 4Q2 0:48 · Texas State 28, Baylor 13Texas State's win chance rose from 25% to 54%.Jeter 1-yd TD run, Texas State leads 28-13
- 5Q3 10:18 · Texas State 35, Baylor 21Texas State's win chance rose from 39% to 58%.Finley 16-yd TD run, Texas State leads 35-21
Texas State's lowest chance to win was 3 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:48 left in the 2nd quarter, Texas State's chance to win went from 24 percent to 54 percent when Texas State scored a touchdown.
The score went from Texas State 21, Baylor 13 to Texas State 28, Baylor 13.
The play: Jeter 1-yd TD run, Texas State leads 28-13.
It was Texas State's first win over Baylor since 1970 in our games data, after 6 straight losses in the series.
What happened next
Texas State's next game: L 13-20 at UTSA, Sep 9
7 days laterBaylor's next game: L 13-20 vs Utah, Sep 9
7 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.