Valero Alamo Bowl ·

Valero Alamo Bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl
No. 14 Arizona10-338
No. 12 Oklahoma10-324Final
Thu, Dec 28 · Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas (neutral site) · Crowd 55,883 · IndoorsESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Arizona had a 8 percent chance to win with 5:37 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 38-24, the Valero Alamo Bowl, December 28, 2023.

Arizona was No. 14 and Oklahoma No. 12 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

How the game turned

Arizona aheadOklahoma aheadBiggest swing
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Q3 0:02 Arizona 21, Oklahoma 24

Arizona 43% to win

Maldonado fumble return TD, two-point try good, cuts it to 24-21

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 10:57 · Arizona 3, Oklahoma 0Arizona's win chance rose from 62% to 65%.Loop 39-yd field goal, Arizona goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q2 2:53 · Arizona 13, Oklahoma 14Arizona's win chance fell from 69% to 59%.Arnold 10-yd TD pass to Anderson, Oklahoma goes ahead 14-13
  3. 3Q3 0:02 · Arizona 21, Oklahoma 24Arizona's win chance rose from 10% to 43%.Maldonado fumble return TD, two-point try good, cuts it to 24-21
  4. 4Q4 12:49 · Arizona 24, Oklahoma 24Arizona's win chance rose from 48% to 56%.Loop 37-yd field goal, ties it 24-24
  5. 5Q4 5:28 · Arizona 31, Oklahoma 24Arizona's win chance rose from 64% to 89%.Fifita 57-yd TD pass to Cowing, Arizona goes ahead 31-24

Arizona's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:02 left in the 3rd quarter, Arizona's chance to win went from 10 percent to 43 percent when Arizona scored a touchdown.

The score went from Arizona 13, Oklahoma 24 to Arizona 21, Oklahoma 24.

The play: Maldonado fumble return TD, two-point try good, cuts it to 24-21.

What happened next

  1. Arizona finished the 2023 season 10-3, No. 14 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

  2. Oklahoma finished the 2023 season 10-3, No. 12 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

  3. Oklahoma's first game of the 2024 season: W 51-3 vs Temple, Aug 30, 2024

    about 8 months later

  4. Arizona's first game of the 2024 season: W 61-39 vs New Mexico, Aug 31, 2024

    about 8 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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