Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl ·
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Records are after this game.
Wyoming had a 7 percent chance to win with 14:00 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 16-15, the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, December 30, 2023.
How the game turned
Q4 0:01 Wyoming 16, Toledo 15
Wyoming 100% to win
Hoyland 24-yd field goal, Wyoming wins it 16-15
Big moments
- 1Q1 6:31 · Wyoming 3, Toledo 0Hoyland 34-yd field goal, Wyoming goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q2 5:19 · Wyoming 6, Toledo 10Wyoming's win chance fell from 75% to 50%.Stuart 80-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 10-6
- 3Q3 2:04 · Wyoming 6, Toledo 15Wyoming's win chance fell from 27% to 16%.Pawlak 33-yd field goal, Toledo leads 15-6
- 4Q4 8:37 · Wyoming 13, Toledo 15Wyoming's win chance rose from 17% to 39%.Svoboda 1-yd TD run, cuts it to 15-13
- 5Q4 0:01 · Wyoming 16, Toledo 15Wyoming's win chance rose from 79% to 100%.Hoyland 24-yd field goal, Wyoming wins it 16-15
Wyoming's lowest chance to win was 7 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
How the lead changed
Wyoming took the lead for good with 0:01 left in the 4th quarter, Wyoming 16, Toledo 15.
What happened next
Wyoming finished the 2023 season 9-4.
Toledo finished the 2023 season 11-3.
Toledo's first game of the 2024 season: W 49-10 vs Duquesne, Aug 29, 2024
about 8 months laterWyoming's first game of the 2024 season: L 7-48 at Arizona State, Aug 31, 2024
about 8 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.