Regular season ·
Miami beat California
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Miami trailed California by 25 points in the 3rd quarter and won 39-38, October 5, 2024.
How the game turned
Q4 0:26 Miami 39, California 38
Miami 73% to win
Ward 5-yd TD pass to Arroyo, Miami goes ahead 39-38
Big moments
- 1Q1 6:19 · Miami 7, California 0Miami's win chance rose from 74% to 85%.Fletcher 3-yd TD run, Miami goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 13:43 · Miami 7, California 14Miami's win chance fell from 68% to 57%.Ott 5-yd TD run, California goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q2 8:00 · Miami 10, California 21Miami's win chance fell from 57% to 38%.Mendoza 66-yd TD pass to Ott, California leads 21-10
- 4Q3 13:07 · Miami 10, California 28Miami's win chance fell from 44% to 14%.Williams return TD, California leads 28-10
- 5Q4 0:26 · Miami 39, California 38Miami's win chance rose from 44% to 73%.Ward 5-yd TD pass to Arroyo, Miami goes ahead 39-38
Miami's lowest chance to win was 3 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
How the lead changed
Miami took the lead for good with 0:26 left in the 4th quarter, Miami 39, California 38.
What happened next
California's next game: L 15-17 at Pittsburgh, Oct 12
7 days laterMiami's next game: W 52-45 at Louisville, Oct 19
14 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.