Regular season ·
Iowa State beat UCF
Records are after this game.
Iowa State had a 1 percent chance to win with 1:59 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 38-35, October 19, 2024.
How the game turned
Q4 0:30 Iowa State 38, UCF 35
Iowa State 9% to win
Becht 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Iowa State goes ahead 38-35
Big moments
- 1Q1 12:17 · Iowa State 0, UCF 7Iowa State's win chance fell from 74% to 68%.Brown 6-yd TD run, UCF goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q1 0:30 · Iowa State 14, UCF 7Hansen 5-yd TD run, Iowa State goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q2 1:18 · Iowa State 14, UCF 21Iowa State's win chance fell from 53% to 23%.Adams return TD, UCF goes ahead 21-14
- 4Q4 11:38 · Iowa State 27, UCF 35Iowa State's win chance fell from 56% to 18%.Harvey 1-yd TD run, UCF leads 35-27
- 5Q4 0:30 · Iowa State 38, UCF 35Iowa State's win chance rose from 5% to 9%.Becht 1-yd TD run, two-point try good, Iowa State goes ahead 38-35
Iowa State's lowest chance to win was 1 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
How the lead changed
Iowa State took the lead for good with 0:30 left in the 4th quarter, Iowa State 38, UCF 35.
What happened next
UCF's next game: L 24-37 vs BYU, Oct 26
7 days laterIowa State's next game: L 22-23 vs Texas Tech, Nov 2
14 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.