Regular season ·
Central Michigan beat San Diego State
Records are after this game.
Central Michigan had a 2 percent chance to win with 2:05 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 22-21, September 28, 2024.
How the game turned
Q4 0:05 Central Michigan 22, San Diego State 21
Central Michigan 99% to win
Mattson 46-yd field goal, Central Michigan goes ahead 22-21
Big moments
- 1Q1 12:26 · Central Michigan 3, San Diego State 0Mattson 25-yd field goal, Central Michigan goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q1 6:13 · Central Michigan 3, San Diego State 7Central Michigan's win chance fell from 43% to 39%.Cooper 3-yd TD run, San Diego State goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q1 0:31 · Central Michigan 10, San Diego State 7Labas 8-yd TD pass to Lukes, Central Michigan goes ahead 10-7
- 4Q2 12:43 · Central Michigan 10, San Diego State 14Central Michigan's win chance fell from 52% to 26%.O'Neil 5-yd TD pass to Wolfe, San Diego State goes ahead 14-10
- 5Q4 0:05 · Central Michigan 22, San Diego State 21Central Michigan's win chance rose from 11% to 99%.Mattson 46-yd field goal, Central Michigan goes ahead 22-21
Central Michigan's lowest chance to win was 2 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:05 left in the 4th quarter, Central Michigan's chance to win went from 11 percent to 99 percent when Central Michigan kicked a field goal.
The score went from Central Michigan 19, San Diego State 21 to Central Michigan 22, San Diego State 21.
The play: Mattson 46-yd field goal, Central Michigan goes ahead 22-21.
What happened next
San Diego State's next game: W 27-24 vs Hawai'i, Oct 5
7 days laterCentral Michigan's next game: L 25-27 vs Ohio, Oct 12
14 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.