Regular season ·

Mississippi State beat Arizona State

No. 12 Arizona State1-120
Mississippi State2-024Final
Sat, Sep 6 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. · Crowd 50,808 · 88°ESPN2

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

Mississippi State beat No. 12 Arizona State by 4 points.

Arizona State was No. 12 in the AP poll before the game; Mississippi State was not ranked.

How the game turned

Mississippi State aheadArizona State aheadBiggest swing
12345

Q4 0:30 Mississippi State 24, Arizona State 20

Mississippi State 90% to win

Shapen 58-yd TD pass to Thompson, Mississippi State goes ahead 24-20

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 13:51 · Mississippi State 7, Arizona State 0Mississippi State's win chance rose from 46% to 62%.Shapen 48-yd TD pass to Evans, Mississippi State goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 12:51 · Mississippi State 17, Arizona State 0Mississippi State's win chance rose from 80% to 92%.Shapen 47-yd TD pass to Thompson, Mississippi State leads 17-0
  3. 3Q4 13:07 · Mississippi State 17, Arizona State 17Mississippi State's win chance fell from 71% to 53%.Leavitt 2-yd TD pass to Tyson, ties it 17-17
  4. 4Q4 1:38 · Mississippi State 17, Arizona State 20Mississippi State's win chance fell from 40% to 23%.Gomez 18-yd field goal, Arizona State goes ahead 20-17
  5. 5Q4 0:30 · Mississippi State 24, Arizona State 20Mississippi State's win chance rose from 11% to 90%.Shapen 58-yd TD pass to Thompson, Mississippi State goes ahead 24-20

Mississippi State's lowest chance to win was 11 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:30 left in the 4th quarter, Mississippi State's chance to win went from 11 percent to 90 percent when Mississippi State scored a touchdown.

The score went from Mississippi State 17, Arizona State 20 to Mississippi State 24, Arizona State 20.

The play: Shapen 58-yd TD pass to Thompson, Mississippi State goes ahead 24-20.

What happened next

  1. Arizona State was No. 12 before the game and out of the next AP poll.

  2. Mississippi State's next game: W 63-0 vs Alcorn State, Sep 13

    7 days later

  3. Arizona State's next game: W 34-15 vs Texas State, Sep 13

    7 days later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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