Regular season ·
Oregon beat Penn State
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Oregon had a 1 percent chance to win in the first overtime, by our win chance curve, and won 30-24 in 2 overtimes, September 27, 2025.
Oregon was No. 6 and Penn State No. 3 in the AP poll before the game.
How the game turned
OT2 Oregon 30, Penn State 24
Oregon 99% to win
D.Moore pass complete. Catch made by G.Bryant for 25 yards. touchdown.
Big moments
- 1Q2 13:26 · Oregon 0, Penn State 3Barker 49-yd field goal, Penn State goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q3 3:16 · Oregon 10, Penn State 3Oregon's win chance rose from 50% to 67%.Moore 8-yd TD pass to Hill, Oregon goes ahead 10-3
- 3Q4 0:30 · Oregon 17, Penn State 17Oregon's win chance fell from 79% to 45%.Allar 7-yd TD pass to Ross, ties it 17-17
Oregon's lowest chance to win was 1 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
In the second overtime, Oregon's chance to win went from 25 percent to 99 percent when Oregon scored a touchdown.
The score went from Oregon 24, Penn State 24 to Oregon 30, Penn State 24.
What happened next
Penn State's next game: L 37-42 at UCLA, Oct 4
7 days laterOregon's next game: L 20-30 vs Indiana, Oct 11
14 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.