Regular season ·
Iowa beat Michigan State
Records are after this game.
Iowa beat Michigan State by 3 points.
How the game turned
Q4 1:29 Iowa 17, Michigan State 17
Iowa 69% to win
Gronowski 13-yd TD pass to Gill, ties it 17-17
Big moments
- 1Q1 3:38 · Iowa 7, Michigan State 0Iowa's win chance rose from 88% to 95%.Wetjen punt return TD, Iowa goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q3 8:58 · Iowa 7, Michigan State 10Iowa's win chance fell from 88% to 74%.Milivojevic 45-yd TD pass to McCray; roughing holder on Iowa, Michigan State goes ahead 10-7
- 3Q3 1:13 · Iowa 7, Michigan State 17Iowa's win chance fell from 58% to 41%.Milivojevic 5-yd TD pass to McCray, Michigan State leads 17-7
- 4Q4 1:29 · Iowa 17, Michigan State 17Iowa's win chance rose from 48% to 69%.Gronowski 13-yd TD pass to Gill, ties it 17-17
- 5Q4 0:02 · Iowa 20, Michigan State 17Iowa's win chance rose from 87% to 100%.Stevens 44-yd field goal, Iowa wins it 20-17
Iowa's lowest chance to win was 25 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 1:29 left in the 4th quarter, Iowa's chance to win went from 48 percent to 69 percent when Iowa scored a touchdown.
The score went from Iowa 10, Michigan State 17 to Iowa 17, Michigan State 17.
The play: Gronowski 13-yd TD pass to Gill, ties it 17-17.
What happened next
Iowa's next game: W 40-16 at Nebraska, Nov 28
6 days laterMichigan State's next game: W 38-28 vs Maryland, Nov 29
7 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.