Regular season ·

Arizona State beat Baylor

Arizona State3-127
Baylor2-224Final
Sat, Sep 20 · McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas · Crowd 40,964 · 91°, cloudyFOX

Records are after this game.

Arizona State beat Baylor by 3 points.

How the game turned

Arizona State aheadBaylor aheadBiggest swingLow: 26%
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Q4 0:00 Arizona State 27, Baylor 24

Arizona State 100% to win

Gomez 43-yd field goal, Arizona State wins it 27-24

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 8:21 · Arizona State 3, Baylor 0Arizona State's win chance rose from 42% to 50%.Gomez 31-yd field goal, Arizona State goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q2 6:26 · Arizona State 10, Baylor 3Arizona State's win chance rose from 45% to 68%.Leavitt 1-yd TD run, Arizona State goes ahead 10-3
  3. 3Q3 8:06 · Arizona State 13, Baylor 10Arizona State's win chance rose from 51% to 53%.Gomez 21-yd field goal, Arizona State goes ahead 13-10
  4. 4Q4 9:02 · Arizona State 16, Baylor 17Arizona State's win chance fell from 59% to 33%.Robertson 1-yd TD pass to Trigg, Baylor goes ahead 17-16
  5. 5Q4 5:29 · Arizona State 24, Baylor 17Arizona State's win chance rose from 42% to 77%.Leavitt 19-yd TD pass to Tyson, two-point try good, Arizona State goes ahead 24-17
  6. 6Q4 1:52 · Arizona State 24, Baylor 24Arizona State's win chance fell from 76% to 50%.Robertson 33-yd TD pass to Trigg, ties it 24-24
  7. 7Q4 0:00 · Arizona State 27, Baylor 24Arizona State's win chance rose from 53% to 100%.Gomez 43-yd field goal, Arizona State wins it 27-24

Arizona State's lowest chance to win was 26 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:00 left in the 4th quarter, Arizona State's chance to win went from 53 percent to 99 percent when Arizona State kicked a field goal.

The score went from Arizona State 24, Baylor 24 to Arizona State 27, Baylor 24.

The play: Gomez 43-yd field goal, Arizona State wins it 27-24.

What happened next

  1. Arizona State's next game: W 27-24 vs TCU, Sep 26

    6 days later

  2. Baylor's next game: W 45-27 at Oklahoma State, Sep 27

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Sep 20, 2025: Baylor 55, Arizona State 19, Oct 3, 2026

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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