Regular season ·

Middle Tennessee beat Nevada

Middle Tennessee1-214
Nevada1-213Final
Sat, Sep 13 · Mackay Stadium, Reno, Nev. · Crowd 16,808 · 75°, fair

Records are after this game.

Middle Tennessee had a 2 percent chance to win with 11:18 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 14-13, September 13, 2025.

How the game turned

Middle Tennessee aheadNevada aheadBiggest swingLow: 2%
12

Q4 0:21 Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13

Middle Tennessee 77% to win

Vattiato 5-yd TD run, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 14-13

Big moments

  1. 1Q2 14:42 · Middle Tennessee 0, Nevada 7Middle Tennessee's win chance fell from 22% to 11%.Purdy 47-yd TD pass to Woods, Nevada goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q4 0:21 · Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13Middle Tennessee's win chance rose from 41% to 77%.Vattiato 5-yd TD run, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 14-13

Middle Tennessee's lowest chance to win was 2 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 0:21 left in the 4th quarter, Middle Tennessee's chance to win went from 40 percent to 77 percent when Middle Tennessee scored a touchdown.

The score went from Middle Tennessee 7, Nevada 13 to Middle Tennessee 14, Nevada 13.

The play: Vattiato 5-yd TD run, Middle Tennessee goes ahead 14-13.

What happened next

  1. Middle Tennessee's next game: L 28-42 vs Marshall, Sep 20

    7 days later

  2. Nevada's next game: L 16-31 at Western Kentucky, Sep 20

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Sep 13, 2025: Middle Tennessee 27, Nevada 20, Sep 19, 2026

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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