Regular season ·
Missouri State beat Liberty
Records are after this game.
Missouri State had a 1 percent chance to win with 1:33 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 21-17, November 8, 2025.
How the game turned
Q4 0:27 Missouri State 21, Liberty 17
Missouri State 78% to win
Clark 13-yd TD pass to Gardner, Missouri State goes ahead 21-17
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:24 · Missouri State 0, Liberty 7Missouri State's win chance fell from 17% to 12%.Dickens 1-yd TD run, Liberty goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q3 4:47 · Missouri State 7, Liberty 10Missouri State's win chance rose from 10% to 21%.Clark 28-yd TD pass to Robinson, cuts it to 10-7
- 3Q4 11:54 · Missouri State 14, Liberty 10Missouri State's win chance rose from 34% to 49%.Clark 1-yd TD run, Missouri State goes ahead 14-10
- 4Q4 8:10 · Missouri State 14, Liberty 17Missouri State's win chance fell from 39% to 22%.Vasko 3-yd TD run, Liberty goes ahead 17-14
- 5Q4 0:27 · Missouri State 21, Liberty 17Missouri State's win chance rose from 31% to 78%.Clark 13-yd TD pass to Gardner, Missouri State goes ahead 21-17
Missouri State's lowest chance to win was 0 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:27 left in the 4th quarter, Missouri State's chance to win went from 31 percent to 78 percent when Missouri State scored a touchdown.
The score went from Missouri State 14, Liberty 17 to Missouri State 21, Liberty 17.
The play: Clark 13-yd TD pass to Gardner, Missouri State goes ahead 21-17.
What happened next
Missouri State's next game: W 38-24 vs UTEP, Nov 15
7 days laterLiberty's next game: L 27-34 at Florida International, Nov 15
7 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.