Regular season ·
Arkansas State beat South Alabama
Records are after this game.
Arkansas State had a 4 percent chance to win with 1:34 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 15-14, October 14, 2025.
How the game turned
Q4 0:03 Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14
Arkansas State 100% to win
Van Andel 38-yd field goal, Arkansas State wins it 15-14
Big moments
- 1Q1 2:50 · Arkansas State 0, South Alabama 7Arkansas State's win chance fell from 22% to 12%.Bullock 9-yd TD run, South Alabama goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q4 7:51 · Arkansas State 12, South Alabama 14Arkansas State's win chance rose from 10% to 41%.Raynor 6-yd TD pass to Summers, two-point try fails, cuts it to 14-12
- 3Q4 0:03 · Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14Arkansas State's win chance rose from 43% to 100%.Van Andel 38-yd field goal, Arkansas State wins it 15-14
Arkansas State's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:03 left in the 4th quarter, Arkansas State's chance to win went from 43 percent to 99 percent when Arkansas State kicked a field goal.
The score went from Arkansas State 12, South Alabama 14 to Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14.
The play: Van Andel 38-yd field goal, Arkansas State wins it 15-14.
What happened next
South Alabama's next game: W 38-31 at Georgia State, Oct 23
9 days laterArkansas State's next game: W 34-24 vs Georgia Southern, Oct 25
11 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 14, 2025: South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49, Oct 8, 2026
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.