Stature and coaches, 1962–2026
The program’s standing over time, with every coach’s tenure beneath it — read down to see who was there for each rise and fall.
DynastyBlue BloodPower ProgramNational ProgramRegional Program
Run↔pass identity, by season
Buffalo's highest stature since 2020
Every coach
Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.
2024–now
Pete Lembo Steady
Pete Lembo held Buffalo at Regional Program IV for 3 seasons.
No outlier style signal this stint
+2.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 23% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Jeff Brohm’s Louisville run (2023–now)
5th-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Followed Maurice Linguist (2021–2024).
System Shift, on arrival
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 9-4 | 5-7 | 6-3 | |
| Postseason | W bowl | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #110 | #92 | #101 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||
| Pass rate | 39.7 | 49.9 | 44.0 | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | Dave Patenaude | Dave Patenaude | Tony Tokarz | |
| DC | Joe Bowen | Joe Bowen | Brian Dougherty | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 38 | 12 | 28 | |
| Defense | 79 | 64 | 34 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 40.3 | 55.1 | 41.3 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 34.6 | 42.7 | 43.1 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 46.3 | 44.2 | 30.0 | |
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
-11.4 pts
#154 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
+33.4 pts
#6 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
41
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
43
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-2
#87 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 230 lbs
across 26 of 41 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.5 lbs
#114 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Jr
#39 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: VA (3), NY (2), IL (2), OH (2), FL (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
50.9
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.6
position-weighted
Net
-2.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Ta'Quan Roberson (QB) from Kansas State
Biggest loss: Cole Snyder (QB) to Eastern Michigan
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Dave Patenaude → Tony Tokarz · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 55.1% → 41.3% (-13.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only -1% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Joe Bowen → Brian Dougherty · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
211 lbs
6′2″ avg · #444 of 767 · middle half
Running back
210 lbs
6′0″ avg · #260 of 791 · middle half
Wide receiver
187 lbs
6′1″ avg · #656 of 791 · bottom quarter
Tight end
248 lbs
6′3″ avg · #241 of 731 · middle half
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
309 lbs
6′5″ avg · #403 of 779 · middle half
D-line
289 lbs
6′2″ avg · #262 of 753 · middle half
Edge
257 lbs
6′4″ avg · #77 of 188 · middle half
Cornerback
191 lbs
6′0″ avg · #324 of 771 · middle half
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Kicker via the portal
100%
#1 of 56 stints
Buys Interior line via the portal
67%
#27 of 224 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
88%
#193 of 223 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2024: Beat Liberty 26-7 Bahamas Bowl Presented by Atlantis Resorts
1 NFL Draft pick: Red Murdock (2026)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Shaun Dolac (2024)
AI Narratives — “Buffalo — stat check”.
+2.4
20-14
2021–2024
Maurice Linguist Steady
Maurice Linguist slid the Bulls from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 3 seasons.
No outlier style signal this stint
−5.5 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 34% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Don Treadwell’s Miami (OH) run (2011–2013)
6th-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Followed Lance Leipold (2015–2020) · succeeded by Pete Lembo (2024–now).
| Season | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 4-8 | 7-6 | 3-9 | 0-0 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #97 | #81 | #84 | — | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 40.5 | 45.0 | 47.5 | — | |
| Coordinators | |||||
| OC | Shane Montgomery | Shane Montgomery | DJ Mangas | — | |
| DC | Joe Cauthen | Brandon Bailey | Robert Wright | — | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 24 | 34 | 8 | — | |
| Defense | 20 | 50 | 70 | — | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 36.3 | 43.8 | 46.1 | — | |
| Red-zone pass% | 25.0 | 33.1 | 33.3 | — | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 47.2 | 40.4 | 52.3 | — | |
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-11.6 pts
#156 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
+11.3 pts
#61 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
37
2.8★ avg rating
Portal departures
61
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-24
#99 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 231 lbs
across 25 of 37 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+2.9 lbs
#173 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: NY (5), FL (3), OK (2), TX (2), CA (2)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.4
position-weighted
Net
-1.4
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: CJ Ogbonna (QB) from Southeast Missouri State
Biggest loss: Kyle Vantrease (QB) to Georgia Southern
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Shane Montgomery → DJ Mangas · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.8% → 46.1% (+2.2 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 57% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Joe Cauthen → Brandon Bailey · 2022
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brandon Bailey → Robert Wright · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
215 lbs
6′2″ avg · #315 of 767 · middle half
Running back
205 lbs
6′0″ avg · #475 of 791 · middle half
Wide receiver
197 lbs
6′1″ avg · #192 of 791 · top quarter
Tight end
251 lbs
6′5″ avg · #171 of 731 · top quarter
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
309 lbs
6′5″ avg · #385 of 779 · middle half
D-line
290 lbs
6′3″ avg · #246 of 753 · middle half
Edge
236 lbs
6′4″ avg · #183 of 188 · bottom quarter
Linebacker
236 lbs
6′2″ avg · #79 of 772 · top quarter
Cornerback
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #213 of 771 · middle half
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Interior line via the portal
75%
#15 of 224 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
75%
#19 of 218 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Grows D-line from high school
86%
#202 of 239 stints
Postseason detail2022: Beat Georgia Southern 23-21 Camellia Bowl
−5.5
14-23
2015–2020
Lance Leipold Steady ◆ COY
Lance Leipold moved the Bulls from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 6 seasons.
Swung 22.0 points of pass rate — #12 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004
−1.6 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 38% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Brady Hoke’s Ball State run (2003–2008)
3rd-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Followed Jeff Quinn (2010–2014) · succeeded by Maurice Linguist (2021–2024).
| Season | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||
| Record | 5-7 | 2-10 | 6-6 | 10-4 | 8-5 | 6-1 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | L bowl | W bowl | W bowl | |
| Recruiting rank | #118 | #118 | #113 | #130 | #106 | #128 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||
| Pass rate | 51.7 | 48.2 | 48.3 | 41.7 | 29.7 | 34.1 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||
| OC | Andy Kotelnicki | Andy Kotelnicki | Andy Kotelnicki / Jim Zebrowski | Andy Kotelnicki / Jim Zebrowski | Andy Kotelnicki / Jim Zebrowski | Andy Kotelnicki / Jim Zebrowski | |
| DC | Brian Borland | Brian Borland | Brian Borland | Brian Borland | Brian Borland | Brian Borland / Chris Simpson | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||
| Offense | 34 | 13 | 67 | 80 | 75 | 94 | |
| Defense | 55 | 45 | 37 | 37 | 86 | 76 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 51.0 | 43.7 | 42.3 | 41.0 | 31.7 | 36.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 54.3 | 38.5 | 36.5 | 32.2 | 21.9 | 18.3 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 33.3 | 29.5 | 10.8 | 61.0 | 39.1 | 68.8 | |
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+25.6 pts
#20 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+19.6 pts
#32 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Andy Kotelnicki → Andy Kotelnicki / Jim Zebrowski (co) · 2017The offense leveled up
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 47.3% → 41.6% (-5.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 35% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brian Borland → Brian Borland / Chris Simpson (co) · 2020
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2018: Lost to Troy 32-42 Dollar General Bowl2019: Beat Charlotte 31-9 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl2020: Beat Marshall 17-10 Camellia Bowl
2 NFL Draft picks: Mason Schreck (2017), Malcolm Koonce (2021)
Coach of the Year: MAC Coach of the Year (2020)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Jaret Patterson (2020)
−1.6
37-33
2014
Alex Wood Short tenure
No outlier style signal this stint
2-2
2010–2014
Jeff Quinn Steady
Jeff Quinn moved Buffalo from Regional Program V to Regional Program IV in 5 seasons.
2010 offense ranked in the 5th percentile nationally — historically bad
+1.6 pts over 5 seasons · top 25% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Willie Taggart’s Western Kentucky run (2010–2012)
4th-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Followed Turner Gill (2006–2009) · succeeded by Alex Wood (2014).
System Shift, on arrival
| Season | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 2-10 | 3-9 | 4-8 | 8-5 | 3-4 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #108 | #100 | #117 | #125 | #100 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||
| Pass rate | 48.2 | 49.2 | 43.9 | 44.2 | 45.3 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||
| OC | — | — | — | — | Alex Wood | |
| DC | — | — | — | — | Lou Tepper | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | 5 | 18 | 10 | 45 | 66 | |
| Defense | 85 | 75 | 77 | 88 | 34 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 41.7 | 43.1 | 38.9 | 41.5 | 38.1 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 50.7 | 40.0 | 43.5 | 33.7 | 35.0 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 22.9 | 39.5 | 39.5 | 21.4 | 36.1 | |
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Kicker from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2013: Lost to San Diego State 24-49 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
4 NFL Draft picks: Joshua Thomas (2011), Steven Means (2013), Khalil Mack (2014), Kristjan Sokoli (2015)
+1.6
20-36
2006–2009
Turner Gill Steady
Turner Gill moved Buffalo from Regional Program VI to Regional Program V in 4 seasons.
2006 offense ranked in the 4th percentile nationally — historically bad
+5.5 pts over 4 seasons · top 12% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma run (2017–2021)
7th-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Followed Jim Hofher (2001–2005) · succeeded by Jeff Quinn (2010–2014).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
| Season | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||
| Record | 2-10 | 5-7 | 8-6 | 5-7 | |
| Postseason | — | — | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #85 | #113 | #114 | #108 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||
| Pass rate | 48.2 | 47.2 | 49.3 | 48.1 | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||
| Offense | 4 | 50 | 62 | 44 | |
| Defense | 23 | 30 | 5 | 55 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||
| 1st-down pass% | 39.6 | 46.4 | 46.2 | 39.0 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 40.2 | 59.0 | 45.0 | 46.1 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 29.0 | 27.3 | 34.0 | 38.7 | |
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2008: Lost to UConn 20-38 International Bowl
3 NFL Draft picks: Trevor Scott (2008), Jamey Richard (2008), James Starks (2010)
+5.5
20-30
2001–2005
Jim Hofher Steady
Jim Hofher held the Bulls at Regional Program VI for 5 seasons.
No outlier style signal this stint
−0.1 pts over 5 seasons · top 34% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Paul Petrino’s Idaho run (2013–2017)
8th-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Followed Craig Cirbus (1999–2000) · succeeded by Turner Gill (2006–2009).
System Shift, on departure
| Season | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 3-8 | 1-11 | 1-11 | 2-9 | 1-10 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | — | #109 | #96 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | — | 35.4 | 44.6 | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | — | — | — | 25 | 40 | |
| Defense | — | — | — | 57 | 47 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | — | 35.1 | 40.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | — | 53.8 | 29.5 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | — | 39.4 | |
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
−0.1
8-49
1999–2000
Craig Cirbus Short tenure
2-20
1969–1970
Bob Deming Short tenure
8-12
1966–1968
Doc Urich Steady
Doc Urich held Buffalo at Regional Program I for 3 seasons.
−1.5 pts over 3 seasons · top 41% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
Closest comparable run: Guy Morriss’s Baylor run (2003–2007)
2nd-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Followed Dick Offenhamer (1962–1965) · succeeded by Bob Deming (1969–1970).
−1.5
18-12
1962–1965
Dick Offenhamer Steady
Dick Offenhamer held Buffalo at Regional Program I for 4 seasons.
1st-best Buffalo tenure of 8 by the numbers.
Succeeded by Doc Urich (1966–1968).
Regional Program I
20-13-4