The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Bill Cubit

Followed Tim Beckman. Bill Cubit held Illinois at Regional Program I for 1 season.

The journeyman
56–54
2005–2015 · 2 stints
Western MichiganIllinois
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerWESTERN MICHIGANILLINOISNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelWestern Michigan, 2005: 7-4, Regional Program III2005Western Michigan, 2006: 8-5, Regional Program III2006Western Michigan, 2007: 5-7, Regional Program III2007Western Michigan, 2008: 9-4, Regional Program III2008Western Michigan, 2009: 5-7, Regional Program III2009Western Michigan, 2010: 6-6, Regional Program III2010Western Michigan, 2011: 7-6, Regional Program II2011Western Michigan, 2012: 4-8, Regional Program II2012+2.1Illinois, 2015: 5-7, Regional Program I2015-0.8One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Western Michigan, 8 seasons
+2.1
Regional Program III → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

60%Illinois2015–2015– 0.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

8–9 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Butch Jones.

Rivalry record
8–9
47.1% · 3 rivals
One-score games
18–18
50.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Eastern Michigan5–362%
Central Michigan3–538%
Northwestern0–10%
The toughest matchup
vs. Butch Jones0–3
3 meetings, 2007–2009
’07 L’08 L’09 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–3 0.0%
Power Program
2–8 20.0%
National Program
6–10 37.5%
Regional Program
39–28 58.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Defense marginal impact
+0.13
#82 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2015–2015
Illinoiscaretaker
Regional Program I → Regional Program I
Bill Cubit held Illinois at Regional Program I for 1 season.

13th-best Illinois tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-36.4 pts
#206 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+26.0 pts
#15 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tim Beckman (2012–2014) · succeeded by Lovie Smith (2016–2020).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Jihad Ward (2016), Ted Karras (2016), Clayton Fejedelem (2016)

5–7
2005–2012
Western Michigancaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program II
Bill Cubit moved Western Michigan from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 8 seasons.

10th-best Western Michigan tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Followed Gary Darnell (1997–2004) · succeeded by P.J. Fleck (2013–2016).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

6 NFL Draft picks: Greg Jennings (2006), Tony Scheffler (2006), Louis Delmas (2009), E.J. Biggers (2009), Jordan White (2012), John Potter (2012)

51–47