The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Bob Davie

Followed Mike Locksley. Bob Davie held New Mexico at Regional Program IV for 8 seasons.

Peak, then fade
70–89
1997–2019 · 2 stints
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Blue Blood in his 1st career season — faster than 59% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #1 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Notre Dame, 5 seasons
−10.9
Blue Blood → Power Program I.
New Mexico, 8 seasons
+2.0
Regional Program V → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

20%30%40%New Mexico2012–2019▲ 19.5pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
New Mexico19.5pt#13 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

12–9 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Mike Bobo.

Rivalry record
12–9
57.1% · 4 rivals
One-score games
29–32
47.5% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Stanford2–340%
USC3–260%
Michigan1–233%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Mike Bobo0–5
5 meetings, 2015–2019
’15 L · blew a 1-pt lead’16 L’17 L · blew a 7-pt lead’18 L · blew a 1-pt lead’19 L · blew a 7-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
1–6 14.3%
Power Program
10–19 34.5%
National Program
14–20 41.2%
Regional Program
38–41 48.1%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.15
#212 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.41
#313 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2012–2019
New Mexicocaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Bob Davie held New Mexico at Regional Program IV for 8 seasons.

14th-best New Mexico tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-1.8 pts
#120 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-27.3 pts
#193 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Locksley (2009–2011) · succeeded by Danny Gonzales (2020–2023).

Season20122013201420152016201720182019Trend
Record & result
Record4–93–94–87–69–43–93–92–10
PostseasonL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#93#116#83#118#122#118
Style — pass rate
Pass rate20.326.520.630.936.439.8
Coordinators
OCBob DeBesseBob DeBesseBob DeBesseBob DeBesseCalvin MageeJoe Dailey
DCKevin CosgroveKevin CosgroveKevin CosgroveKevin CosgroveKevin CosgroveJordan Peterson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense68579513822
Defense526414198
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%18.019.816.824.525.937.1
Red-zone pass%5.710.311.619.418.233.3
4th-down go%opp. territory55.035.948.635.115.031.4
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Bob DeBesse → Calvin Magee · 2018
13th pct8th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 24.5% → 25.9% (+1.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Calvin Magee → Joe Dailey · 2019
8th pct22nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 25.9% → 37.1% (+11.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 79% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Kevin Cosgrove → Jordan Peterson · 2019
19th pct8th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Lost to Arizona 37–45 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2016: Beat UTSA 23–20 Gildan New Mexico Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Jason Sanders (2018)

35–64
1997–2001
Notre Dameinheritor
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Bob Davie inherited a Blue Blood Notre Dame and won with it.

7th-best Notre Dame tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Lou Holtz (1986–1996) · succeeded by Tyrone Willingham (2002–2004).

26 NFL Draft picks: Renaldo Wynn (1997), Marc Edwards (1997), Bert Berry (1997), Kinnon Tatum (1997), Pete Chryplewicz (1997), Allen Rossum (1998), Luke Petitgout (1999), Jerry Wisne (1999) + 18 more

35–25