The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jay Norvell

Followed Steve Addazio. Jay Norvell slid Colorado State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

The journeyman

51–52

2017–now · 2 stints

Nevada Colorado State

← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Nevada, 5 seasons

−2.6

Regional Program II → Regional Program II.

Colorado State, 4 seasons (active)

−2.5

Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Nevada9.9pt#135 of 258 · a typical amount

Colorado State14.6pt#57 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–6 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Craig Bohl.

Rivalry record

3–6

33.3% · 3 rivals

One-score games

18–13

58.1% · margin ≤8

Buyout owed

$1,500,000

bigger than 7% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

UNLV2–250%

Wyoming1–233%

Colorado0–20%

The toughest matchup

vs. Craig Bohl1–3

4 meetings, 2019–2023

’19 L’20 W’22 L · blew a 10-pt lead’23 L

25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Power Program

0–6 0.0%

National Program

5–10 33.3%

Regional Program

29–25 53.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.01

#160 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

+0.10

#93 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2022–now

Colorado Statecaretaker

Regional Program III → Regional Program IV

Jay Norvell slid Colorado State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

16th-best Colorado State tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-12.1 pts

#156 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-10.0 pts

#146 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Steve Addazio (2020–2021).

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025
Record & result
Record	3–9	5–7	8–5	0–5
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#78	#70	#69	#106
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	45.5	60.1	45.5	52.0
Coordinators
OC	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme
DC	Freddie Banks	Freddie Banks	Freddie Banks	Tyson Summers
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	8	39	41	33
Defense	48	37	39	8
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	42.9	48.9	32.3	48.0
Red-zone pass%	32.2	47.7	26.5	38.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	47.2	20.6	41.3	51.6

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-24

#99 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 234 lbs

across 42 of 50 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+1.5 lbs

#199 of 255 · less than most

Avg. class year

#10 of 255 · more than most

Top states: TX (11), CA (8), WA (4), CO (4), GA (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

53.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

55.2

position-weighted

Net

-1.3

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Clay Millen (QB) from Nevada

Biggest loss: Evan Olaes (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

199 lbs

6′3″ avg · #711 of 767 · less than most

Running back

201 lbs

5′11″ avg · #600 of 791 · less than most

Wide receiver

192 lbs

6′1″ avg · #434 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

236 lbs

6′4″ avg · #645 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′5″ avg · #540 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

268 lbs

6′3″ avg · #684 of 753 · less than most

Linebacker

225 lbs

6′2″ avg · #575 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

188 lbs

6′0″ avg · #496 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys ATH via the portal

30%

#16 of 146 stints

Buys Cornerback via the portal

75%

#27 of 236 stints

Grows Safety from high school

88%

#195 of 218 stints

Grows Wide receiver from high school

73%

#203 of 243 stints

Postseason detail2024: Lost to Miami (OH) 17–43 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Trey McBride (2022), Mohamed Kamara (2024), Tory Horton (2025)

AI Narratives — “Colorado State — stat check”.

18–26

2017–2021

Nevadacaretaker

Regional Program I → Regional Program II

Jay Norvell slid Nevada from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 5 seasons.

7th-best Nevada tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+11.0 pts

#61 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

+9.2 pts

#68 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Brian Polian (2013–2016) · succeeded by Ken Wilson (2022–2023).

Season	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	3–9	8–5	7–6	7–2	0–1
Postseason	—	W CFP	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#95	#82	#93	#119	#85
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	55.5	53.0	53.0	58.4	62.9
Coordinators
OC	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme
DC	Jeff Casteel	Jeff Casteel	Jeff Casteel	Brian Ward	Brian Ward
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	45	35	27	82	83
Defense	36	87	25	52	67
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	50.8	52.5	49.9	55.3	61.2
Red-zone pass%	50.0	37.7	48.4	47.0	57.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	54.5	46.7	30.4	33.3	38.9

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.2★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-6

#160 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

5′10″, 179 lbs

across 3 of 6 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

-13.1 lbs

#256 of 255 · less than most

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · more than most

Top states: FL (1), CA (1), TX (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

21.5

position-weighted

Talent lost

29.7

position-weighted

Net

-8.2

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Marquis Spiker (WR) from Washington

Biggest loss: Charles Ross (WR) to San José State

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

215 lbs

6′5″ avg · #324 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

217 lbs

5′9″ avg · #100 of 791 · more than most

Wide receiver

193 lbs

6′1″ avg · #408 of 791 · a typical amount

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

303 lbs

6′4″ avg · #624 of 779 · less than most

D-line

273 lbs

6′2″ avg · #609 of 753 · less than most

Linebacker

226 lbs

6′0″ avg · #510 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

189 lbs

5′11″ avg · #459 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Interior line from high school

80%

#176 of 224 stints

Postseason detail2018: Beat Arkansas State 16–13 CFP2019: Lost to Ohio 21–30 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2020: Beat Tulane 38–27 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2021: Lost to Western Michigan 24–52 Quick Lane Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Austin Corbett (2018), Romeo Doubs (2022), Cole Turner (2022)

33–26

The Zeitgeist List · coordinating

Jay Norvell

Offensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.

How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from coordinator_journeys(); head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from staff_assignments. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.