Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 0-1
2011Chick-fil-A BowlL 24-43
Report card
Above the median on both sides of the ball — 52nd percentile offense, 57th percentile defense.
Virginia, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.
Offense
Defense
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Fans
No fan talk about him on our list yet. His record is on Career.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0-6 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Larry Fedora.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Called about what the situation called for under every play-caller.
4,103 run and pass snaps at Virginia, 2010–2015, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Four numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2015 roster arrived on his watch — 107 of 107 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
This coach's entire tenure (2010-2015) predates 2021, when transfer-portal tracking begins in this database. Portal usage cannot be measured for this tenure at all -- this is not the same as '0% portal'.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
Offensive linemen on his Virginia rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2010–2015).
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 53 of 95 signees (56%) across his 2010–2015 tenure, drawn from 11 states in all. Next: MD (9).
71% of his signees come from VA and its 6 border states (MD 9, NC 4, DC 1).
Off this map: 5 signees to the south (FL 5), 3 to the west (TX 3) and 1 to the north (MA).
- median hometown distance
- 141 mi
- within 100 mi
- 34%
- within 500 mi
- 90%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 3%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 4 of them himself. 5 more can’t be traced to who brought them in (no roster record).
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | R6.34 | Maurice Canady | Cornerback |  Baltimore Ravens | |
| 2015 | R3.15 | Eli Harold | Outside Linebacker |  San Francisco 49ers | |
| 2015 | R6.03 | Max Valles | Inside Linebacker |  Oakland Raiders | |
| 2014 | R3.02 | Morgan Moses | Offensive Tackle |  Washington Redskins | |
| 2014 | R4.34 | Brent Urban | Defensive Tackle | Baltimore Ravens | Estimated |
| 2014 | R6.29 | Luke Bowanko | Center |  Jacksonville Jaguars | Estimated |
| 2013 | R5.08 | Oday Aboushi | Offensive Guard |  New York Jets | Estimated |
| 2012 | R7.30 | Cam Johnson | Defensive End | San Francisco 49ers | Estimated |
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | R2.01 | Ras-I Dowling | Cornerback |  New England Patriots | Estimated |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
No outlet on our list has written about him by name yet. His record is on Career.
Career
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
4th-best Virginia tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Al Groh (2001–2009) · succeeded by Bronco Mendenhall (2016–2021).
| Season | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||
| Record | 4-8 | 8-5 | 4-8 | 2-10 | 5-7 | 4-8 | |
| Postseason | — | L bowl | — | — | — | — | |
| Coordinators | |||||||
| OC | — | — | — | — | Steve Fairchild | Steve Fairchild | |
| DC | — | — | — | — | Jon Tenuta | Jon Tenuta | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||
| Offense | 62 | 52 | 36 | 11 | 14 | 53 | |
| Defense | 25 | 46 | 75 | 83 | 83 | 33 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | |||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 44.3 | 36.4 | 43.9 | 42.8 | 37.3 | 41.8 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 49.5 | 35.6 | 43.0 | 39.4 | 37.2 | 37.5 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 35.1 | 33.3 | 32.4 | 34.2 | 24.0 | 15.8 | |
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Was he good?
The data leans negative, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
-8.8 pts at Virginia · #1178 of 1290 · bottom quarterModel fit as of 2026-09-04.