The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Mike Neu

Followed Pete Lembo. Mike Neu held Ball State at Regional Program IV for 9 seasons.

40–63
2016–2024 · 1 stint
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Ball State, 9 seasons
−2.7
Regional Program IV → Regional Program V.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Ball State2016–2024▲ 8.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Ball State15.1pt#52 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–4 against his rivals. Just 1–7 against Chuck Martin.

Rivalry record
4–4
50.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
16–20
44.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Chuck Martin1–7
8 meetings, 2016–2023
’16 L · blew a 10-pt lead’17 L’18 L · blew a 14-pt lead’19 W · erased a 17-pt deficit’20 L · blew a 11-pt lead’21 L · blew a 7-pt lead’22 L · blew a 14-pt lead’23 L · blew a 6-pt lead
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Power Program
0–3 0.0%
National Program
1–13 7.1%
Regional Program
27–37 42.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.00
#157 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.21
#268 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2016–2024
Ball Statecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Mike Neu held Ball State at Regional Program IV for 9 seasons.

8th-best Ball State tenure of 10 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+0.9 pts
#107 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-4.9 pts
#125 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Pete Lembo (2011–2015) · succeeded by Mike Uremovich (2025–2026).

Season201620172018201920202021202220232024Trend
Record & result
Record4–82–104–85–77–16–75–74–83–7
PostseasonW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#113#90#118#124#122#94#96#107#112
Style — pass rate
Pass rate45.744.951.541.040.749.853.639.254.3
Coordinators
OCJoey LynchJoey LynchJoey LynchJoey LynchKevin LynchKevin LynchKevin LynchJared Elliott / Kevin LynchJared Elliott
DCTim DaoustDavid ElsonDavid ElsonDavid Elson / Tyler StocktonTyler StocktonTyler StocktonTyler StocktonTyler StocktonJeff Knowles
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense40743807420153027
Defense2222023483857806
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%40.541.446.836.239.747.144.334.451.6
Red-zone pass%32.536.640.024.244.753.543.635.948.8
4th-down go%opp. territory40.532.426.830.437.923.331.727.836.4
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
28
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
45
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-17
#150 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 229 lbs
across 23 of 28 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-0.1 lbs
#235 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#78 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: IN (6), GA (3), MD (2), IL (2), TN (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
48.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.0
position-weighted
Net
-3.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Layne Hatcher (QB) from Texas State
Biggest loss: John Paddock (QB) to Illinois
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Joey Lynch → Kevin Lynch · 2020the offense slipped
62nd pct47th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 41.5% → 43.4% (+1.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 76% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Kevin Lynch → co-Jared Elliott / Kevin Lynch · 2023
15th pct30th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 44.3% → 34.4% (-9.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 26% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Tim Daoust → David Elson · 2017
22nd pct2nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: David Elson → David Elson / co-Tyler Stockton · 2019
20th pct23rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: David Elson / co-Tyler Stockton → Tyler Stockton · 2020
23rd pct48th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
198 lbs
6′0″ avg · #715 of 767 · less than most
Running back
214 lbs
5′11″ avg · #146 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #378 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
241 lbs
6′5″ avg · #538 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
302 lbs
6′5″ avg · #653 of 779 · less than most
D-line
283 lbs
6′3″ avg · #409 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
230 lbs
6′2″ avg · #296 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
184 lbs
5′11″ avg · #665 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Quarterback from high school
75%
#164 of 206 stints
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Postseason detail2020: Beat San José State 34–13 Offerpad Arizona Bowl2021: Lost to Georgia State 20–51 TaxAct Camellia Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Danny Pinter (2020), Nic Jones (2023)

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