NC State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2013–now

Dave Doeren Steady

Dave Doeren moved the Wolfpack from National Program II to National Program I in 14 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+3.5 pts over 14 seasons · bottom 17% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jason Candle’s Toledo run (2015–2025)

4th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Tom O'Brien (2007–2012).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	3-9	8-5	7-6	7-6	9-4	9-4	4-8	8-4	9-3	8-5	9-4	6-7	8-5	4-4
Postseason	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#59	#34	#31	#50	#53	#26	#31	#41	#34	#64	#43	#27	#34	#49
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	45.1	42.9	43.3	46.5	49.3	50.3	52.6	48.0	54.4	51.6	44.2	48.2	49.4	46.7
Coordinators
OC	—	Matt Canada	Matt Canada	Eliah Drinkwitz	Eliah Drinkwitz	Eliah Drinkwitz	George McDonald / Desmond Kitchings	George McDonald / Tim Beck	Tim Beck	Tim Beck	Robert Anae	Robert Anae	Kurt Roper	Kurt Roper
DC	—	Dave Huxtable	Dave Huxtable	Dave Huxtable	Dave Huxtable	Ted Roof / Dave Huxtable	Tony Gibson / Dave Huxtable	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Tony Gibson	Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot	Charlton Warren / D. J. Eliot
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	28	80	65	42	85	57	8	52	60	16	46	77	78	63
Defense	26	54	48	82	55	28	21	57	94	82	78	26	47	27
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	35.1	45.3	39.9	40.4	44.4	45.5	47.1	43.3	47.8	46.5	44.8	46.9	38.7	38.9
Red-zone pass%	43.2	43.7	36.8	26.4	36.1	40.7	38.4	35.2	54.2	47.1	44.9	42.2	43.4	37.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	30.2	17.9	37.2	38.1	44.4	27.5	31.6	17.1	15.2	26.4	20.5	26.2	38.5	35.3

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-2.7 pts

#124 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

+0.7 pts

#95 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-30

#115 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Hollywood Smothers On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 238 lbs

across 51 of 65 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+7.8 lbs

#38 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#226 of 255 · bottom quarter

Top states: NC (9), FL (7), TX (5), GA (4), VA (4)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

59.3

position-weighted

Talent lost

62.4

position-weighted

Net

-3.1

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Brennan Armstrong (QB) from Virginia

Biggest loss: Devin Leary (QB) to Kentucky

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Matt Canada → Eliah Drinkwitz · 2016The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 42.6% → 42.4% (-0.2 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 56% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Eliah Drinkwitz → George McDonald (co) / Desmond Kitchings (co) · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.5% → 47.1% (+1.6 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 13% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: George McDonald (co) / Desmond Kitchings (co) → George McDonald (co) / Tim Beck · 2020

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 47.1% → 43.3% (-3.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 60% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: George McDonald (co) / Tim Beck → Tim Beck · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 43.3% → 47.8% (+4.5 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 66% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Tim Beck → Robert Anae · 2023The offense improved

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 47.2% → 45.8% (-1.3 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 38% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Robert Anae → Kurt Roper · 2025The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 45.8% → 38.8% (-7.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 95% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Dave Huxtable (co) → Ted Roof (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Ted Roof (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) → Tony Gibson (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Tony Gibson (co) / Dave Huxtable (co) → Tony Gibson · 2020

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

210 lbs

6′3″ avg · #453 of 767 · middle half

Running back

207 lbs

5′11″ avg · #410 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

198 lbs

6′1″ avg · #175 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

244 lbs

6′4″ avg · #433 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

310 lbs

6′4″ avg · #327 of 779 · middle half

D-line

292 lbs

6′3″ avg · #221 of 753 · middle half

Edge

280 lbs

6′3″ avg · #5 of 188 · top quarter

Linebacker

223 lbs

6′2″ avg · #640 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

191 lbs

6′0″ avg · #350 of 771 · middle half

Safety

196 lbs

6′0″ avg · #190 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Long snapper from high school

100%

#13 of 13 stints

Grows Kicker from high school

80%

#52 of 56 stints

Postseason detail2014: Beat UCF 34-27 Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl2015: Lost to Mississippi State 28-51 Bowl2016: Beat Vanderbilt 41-17 Camping World Independence Bowl2017: Beat Arizona State 52-31 Bowl2018: Lost to Texas A&M 13-52 Bowl2020: Lost to Kentucky 21-23 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2022: Lost to Maryland 12-16 Duke's Mayo Bowl2023: Lost to Kansas State 19-28 Pop-Tarts Bowl2024: Lost to East Carolina 21-26 Go Bowling Military Bowl2025: Beat Memphis 31-7 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

29 NFL Draft picks: Dontae Johnson (2014), Joe Thuney (2016), Jacoby Brissett (2016), Juston Burris (2016), Josh Jones (2017), Jack Tocho (2017), Matthew Dayes (2017), Bradley Chubb (2018) + 21 more

6 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Bradley Chubb (2017), Alim McNeill (2020), Zonovan Knight (2021), Ikem Ekwonu (2021), Christopher Dunn (2022), Payton Wilson (2023)

AI Narratives — “NC State's Final Surge” and 4 more on the team page.

+3.5

99-74

2007–2012

Tom O'Brien Steady

Tom O'Brien slid the Wolfpack from National Program I to National Program II in 6 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−5.7 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 18% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tommy West’s Memphis run (2001–2009)

8th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Chuck Amato (2000–2006) · succeeded by Dave Doeren (2013–now).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Record & result
Record	5-7	6-7	5-7	9-4	8-5	7-5
Postseason	—	L bowl	—	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#46	#23	#48	#35	#71	#52
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	58.6	47.0	50.1	54.2	51.0	54.7
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	9	60	55	70	10	35
Defense	65	37	42	55	85	94
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	46.5	44.9	41.6	54.0	39.5	53.8
Red-zone pass%	43.2	44.4	51.0	53.7	44.2	58.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	23.7	26.8	35.7	27.3	31.4	40.9

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2008: Lost to Rutgers 23-29 Bowl2010: Beat West Virginia 23-7 Champs Sports Bowl2011: Beat Louisville 31-24 Belk Bowl

15 NFL Draft picks: DaJuan Morgan (2008), DeMario Pressley (2008), Anthony Hill (2009), Andre Brown (2009), Ted Larsen (2010), Willie Young (2010), Nate Irving (2011), T.J. Graham (2012) + 7 more

−5.7

40-35

2000–2006

Chuck Amato Steady

Chuck Amato moved NC State from National Program II to National Program I in 7 seasons.

2004 defense ranked in the 100th percentile nationally — elite

+9.7 pts over 7 seasons · top 17% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bill Clark’s UAB run (2014–2021)

2nd-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Mike O'Cain (1993–1999) · succeeded by Tom O'Brien (2007–2012).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006
Record & result
Record	8-4	7-5	11-3	8-5	5-6	7-5	3-9
Postseason	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	#40	#29	#48
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	44.1	44.5	50.3
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	6	5	41
Defense	—	—	—	—	100	84	62
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	38.4	41.7	48.4
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	35.3	43.5	44.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	30.3	27.6	22.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2000: Beat Minnesota 38-30 Bowl2001: Lost to Pittsburgh 19-34 Bowl2002: Beat Notre Dame 28-6 Gator Bowl2003: Beat Kansas 56-26 Bowl2005: Beat South Florida 14-0 Bowl

21 NFL Draft picks: Koren Robinson (2001), Adrian Wilson (2001), Levar Fisher (2002), Brian Williams (2002), Terrence Holt (2003), Scott Kooistra (2003), Philip Rivers (2004), Sean Locklear (2004) + 13 more

+9.7

49-37

1993–1999

Mike O'Cain Steady

Mike O'Cain slid the Wolfpack from National Program I to National Program II in 7 seasons.

−6.5 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 14% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tim Lester’s Western Michigan run (2017–2022)

7th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Dick Sheridan (1986–1992) · succeeded by Chuck Amato (2000–2006).

Season	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999
Record & result
Record	7-5	9-3	3-8	3-8	6-5	7-5	6-6
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	—	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1993: Lost to Michigan 7-42 Bowl1994: Beat Mississippi State 28-24 Bowl1998: Lost to Miami 23-46 Bowl

14 NFL Draft picks: Dewayne Washington (1994), Gary Downs (1994), George Hegamin (1994), Damien Covington (1995), William Strong (1995), Carl Reeves (1995), Eddie Goines (1995), Rod Brown (1997) + 6 more

−6.5

41-40

1986–1992

Dick Sheridan Steady

Dick Sheridan moved NC State from National Program III to National Program I in 7 seasons.

+9.0 pts over 7 seasons · top 20% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gary Andersen’s Utah State run (2009–2012, 2019–2020)

6th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Tom Reed (1983–1985) · succeeded by Mike O'Cain (1993–1999).

Season	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992
Record & result
Record	8-3-1	4-7	8-3-1	7-5	7-5	9-3	9-3-1
Postseason	L bowl	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1986: Lost to Virginia Tech 24-25 Bowl1988: Beat Iowa 28-23 Bowl1989: Lost to Arizona 10-17 Bowl1990: Beat Southern Miss 31-27 Bowl1991: Lost to East Carolina 34-37 Bowl1992: Lost to Florida 10-27 Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Haywood Jeffires (1987), Nelson Jones (1987), Danny Peebles (1989), Naz Worthen (1989), Ray Agnew (1990), Bobby Houston (1990), Mike Jones (1991), Jesse Campbell (1991) + 8 more

+9.0

52-29-3

1983–1985

Tom Reed Steady

Tom Reed slid the Wolfpack from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.

−10.6 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 11% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama run (2024–now)

9th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Monte Kiffin (1980–1982) · succeeded by Dick Sheridan (1986–1992).

4 NFL Draft picks: Joe McIntosh (1985), Frank Bush (1985), Joe Milinichik (1986), Raymond Phillips (1986)

−10.6

9-24

1980–1982

Monte Kiffin Steady

Monte Kiffin slid NC State from Power Program III to National Program I in 3 seasons.

−6.3 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 29% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gerry DiNardo’s Indiana run (2002–2004)

3rd-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Bo Rein (1976–1979) · succeeded by Tom Reed (1983–1985).

5 NFL Draft picks: Bubba Green (1981), Mike Quick (1982), Robert Abraham (1982), Eric Williams (1983), Perry Williams (1983)

−6.3

16-17

1976–1979

Bo Rein Steady

Bo Rein moved NC State from National Program I to Power Program III in 4 seasons.

+4.4 pts over 4 seasons · top 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: David Braun’s Northwestern run (2023–now)

1st-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Lou Holtz (1972–1975) · succeeded by Monte Kiffin (1980–1982).

Season	1976	1977	1978	1979
Record & result
Record	3-7-1	8-4	9-3	7-4
Postseason	—	W bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1977: Beat Iowa State 24-14 Bowl1978: Beat Pittsburgh 30-17 Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Johnny Evans (1978), Elijah Marshall (1978), Ted Brown (1979), Jim Ritcher (1980), Chris Dieterich (1980)

+4.4

27-18-1

1972–1975

Lou Holtz Builder

Lou Holtz raised NC State from Regional Program I to National Program I.

+14.9 pts over 4 seasons · top 1% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jim Harbaugh’s Stanford run (2007–2010)

5th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Al Michaels (1971) · succeeded by Bo Rein (1976–1979).

Season	1972	1973	1974	1975
Record & result
Record	8-3-1	9-3	9-2-1	7-4-1
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1972: Beat West Virginia 49-13 Bowl1973: Beat Kansas 31-18 Bowl1974: Tied Houston 31-31 Bowl1975: Lost to West Virginia 10-13 Bowl

5 NFL Draft picks: Charley Young (1974), Willie Burden (1974), Rick Druschel (1974), Allen Sitterle (1974), Stan Fritts (1975)

+14.9

33-12-3

1971

Al Michaels Short tenure

3-8

1954–1970

Earle Edwards Builder

Earle Edwards raised NC State from Regional Program IV to National Program II.

+21.9 pts over 17 seasons · top 22% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: David Cutcliffe’s Duke run (2008–2021)

10th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Followed Horace Hendrickson (1952–1953) · succeeded by Al Michaels (1971).

+21.9

77-88-8

1952–1953

Horace Hendrickson Short tenure

4-16

1944–1951

Beattie Feathers Steady≈

Beattie Feathers moved NC State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program I in 8 seasons.

+10.4 pts over 8 seasons · top 16% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dennis Franchione’s New Mexico run (1992–1997)

11th-best NC State tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Horace Hendrickson (1952–1953).

+10.4

37-38-3

1940

Doc Newton Short tenure

3-6

1936

Hunk Anderson Short tenure

3-7