David Cutcliffe
Followed Ted Roof. David Cutcliffe raised Duke from Regional Program V to National Program III.
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
13–17 against his rivals. Winless in 6 tries against Bronco Mendenhall.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
5th-best Duke tenure of 15 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Followed Ted Roof (2003–2007) · succeeded by Mike Elko (2022–2023).
| Season | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | |||||||||||||||
| Record | 4–8 | 5–7 | 3–9 | 3–9 | 6–7 | 10–4 | 9–4 | 8–5 | 4–8 | 7–6 | 8–5 | 5–7 | 2–9 | 3–9 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | — | — | — | L bowl | W bowl | — | W bowl | W bowl | — | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | — | — | — | — | — | — | #61 | #52 | #33 | #47 | #63 | #49 | #61 | #58 | |
| Style — pass rate | |||||||||||||||
| Pass rate | — | — | — | — | — | — | 48.9 | 49.3 | 50.2 | 46.2 | 49.8 | 43.3 | 47.1 | 43.9 | |
| Coordinators | |||||||||||||||
| OC | — | — | — | — | — | — | Scottie Montgomery | Scottie Montgomery | Zac Roper | Zac Roper | Zac Roper | Zac Roper | Zac Roper | Jeff Faris / Re'quan Boyette | |
| DC | — | — | — | — | — | — | Jim Knowles | Jim Knowles | Jim Knowles | Jim Knowles | Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri | Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri | Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri | Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | |||||||||||||||
| Offense | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39 | 36 | 36 | 20 | 40 | 4 | 15 | 7 | |
| Defense | — | — | — | — | — | — | 42 | 27 | 30 | 82 | 47 | 59 | 7 | 0 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | |||||||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 44.7 | 40.3 | 47.4 | 51.3 | 56.0 | 50.7 | 47.9 | 47.9 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | — | — | — | — | 39.4 | 43.2 | 32.9 | 39.0 | 39.8 | 38.8 | 38.4 | 21.5 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | — | — | — | 36.4 | 29.9 | 42.4 | 35.4 | 44.7 | 36.1 | 42.3 | 41.7 | |
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
9 NFL Draft picks: Sean Renfree (2013), Ross Cockrell (2014), Laken Tomlinson (2015), Jamison Crowder (2015), Daniel Jones (2019), Chris Rumph II (2021), Michael Carter II (2021), Noah Gray (2021) + 1 more
11th-best Ole Miss tenure of 17 by the numbers.
Succeeded by Ed Orgeron (2005–2007).
17 NFL Draft picks: John Avery (1998), Nate Wayne (1998), Todd Wade (2000), Kendrick Clancy (2000), Tutan Reyes (2000), Deuce McAllister (2001), Ken Lucas (2001), Derrick Burgess (2001) + 9 more