Duke: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2024–now

Manny Diaz Steady

Manny Diaz moved Duke from National Program III to National Program II in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+2.7 pts over 3 seasons · top 21% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Art Briles’s Houston run (2003–2007)

4th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Mike Elko (2022–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	9-4	9-5	6-2
Postseason	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#61	#30	#71
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	55.1	52.7	45.7
Coordinators
OC	Jonathan Brewer	Jonathan Brewer	Jonathan Brewer
DC	Jonathan Patke	Jonathan Patke	Jonathan Patke
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	16	88	75
Defense	50	11	90
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	46.5	49.3	41.5
Red-zone pass%	46.7	32.9	44.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	31.1	49.0	42.3

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+1.2 pts

#105 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-20.3 pts

#180 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-5

#71 of 187 FBS stints

Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value

Darian Mensah On3 modeled · $6,500,000Cooper Barkate On3 modeled · $1,000,000

On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 243 lbs

across 37 of 46 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+3.6 lbs

#141 of 255 · middle half

Avg. class year

#56 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: CA (6), TX (4), PA (3), VA (3), LA (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

56.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

60.4

position-weighted

Net

-3.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Maalik Murphy (QB) from Texas

Biggest loss: Darian Mensah (QB) to Miami

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

217 lbs

6′4″ avg · #250 of 767 · middle half

Running back

204 lbs

5′11″ avg · #512 of 791 · middle half

Wide receiver

188 lbs

5′11″ avg · #614 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

238 lbs

6′4″ avg · #605 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

301 lbs

6′4″ avg · #667 of 779 · bottom quarter

D-line

290 lbs

6′3″ avg · #258 of 753 · middle half

Edge

245 lbs

6′4″ avg · #151 of 188 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

219 lbs

6′2″ avg · #720 of 772 · bottom quarter

Cornerback

185 lbs

5′11″ avg · #642 of 771 · bottom quarter

Safety

194 lbs

6′0″ avg · #236 of 346 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Quarterback via the portal

71%

#13 of 206 stints

Buys Tackle via the portal

58%

#46 of 223 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2024: Lost to Ole Miss 20-52 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2025: Beat Arizona State 42-39 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Wesley Williams (2026), Chandler Rivers (2026), Brian Parker II (2026)

+2.7

24-11

2023

Trooper Taylor Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

1-0

2022–2023

Mike Elko Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

16-9

2008–2021

David Cutcliffe Builder

David Cutcliffe raised Duke from Regional Program V to National Program III.

2021 defense ranked in the 0th percentile nationally — historically bad

+21.9 pts over 14 seasons · top 22% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mack Brown’s Texas run (1998–2013)

5th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Ted Roof (2003–2007) · succeeded by Mike Elko (2022–2023).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	4-8	5-7	3-9	3-9	6-7	10-4	9-4	8-5	4-8	7-6	8-5	5-7	2-9	3-9
Postseason	—	—	—	—	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—	W bowl	W bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#67	#54	#73	#63	#62	#71	#61	#52	#33	#47	#63	#49	#61	#58
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	49.5	59.6	56.1	57.5	55.7	46.5	48.9	49.3	50.2	46.2	49.8	43.3	47.1	43.9
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	Scottie Montgomery	Scottie Montgomery	Zac Roper	Zac Roper	Zac Roper	Zac Roper	Zac Roper	Jeff Faris / Re'quan Boyette
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	Jim Knowles	Jim Knowles	Jim Knowles	Jim Knowles	Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri	Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri	Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri	Ben Albert / Matt Guerrieri
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	4	29	37	34	53	56	39	36	36	20	40	4	17	7
Defense	60	37	1	1	8	16	42	27	30	82	47	59	7	0
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	42.2	52.6	46.1	47.6	47.0	39.3	44.7	40.3	47.4	51.3	56.0	50.7	47.9	47.9
Red-zone pass%	46.9	58.9	41.4	37.1	47.6	30.3	39.4	43.2	32.9	39.0	39.8	38.8	38.4	21.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	32.6	32.0	31.1	40.0	41.0	40.0	36.4	29.9	42.4	35.4	44.7	36.1	42.3	41.7

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-31.1 pts

#200 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-17.6 pts

#172 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-1

#145 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′0″, 203 lbs

across 3 of 8 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

-1.3 lbs

#243 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: OH (1), CA (1), SC (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

17.1

position-weighted

Talent lost

31.3

position-weighted

Net

-14.3

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Carson Van Lynn (OT) from Pittsburgh

Biggest loss: Chris Katrenick (QB) to Eastern Illinois

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Scottie Montgomery → Zac Roper · 2016The system held

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 42.5% → 49.4% (+6.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 69% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Zac Roper → Jeff Faris (co) / Re'quan Boyette (co) · 2021

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 47.9% → 47.9% (-0.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 68% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Jim Knowles → Ben Albert (co) / Matt Guerrieri (co) · 2018The system held

2-season window either side.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

219 lbs

6′3″ avg · #208 of 767 · middle half

Running back

202 lbs

6′0″ avg · #594 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

198 lbs

6′2″ avg · #151 of 791 · top quarter

Tight end

243 lbs

6′5″ avg · #466 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

D-line

287 lbs

6′3″ avg · #317 of 753 · middle half

Cornerback

193 lbs

6′1″ avg · #251 of 771 · middle half

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

86%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2012: Lost to Cincinnati 34-48 Belk Bowl2013: Lost to Texas A&M 48-52 Chick-fil-A BOWL2014: Lost to Arizona State 31-36 Hyundai Sun Bowl2015: Beat Indiana 44-41 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2017: Beat Northern Illinois 36-14 Quick Lane Bowl2018: Beat Temple 56-27 Walk-On's Independence Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Sean Renfree (2013), Ross Cockrell (2014), Laken Tomlinson (2015), Jamison Crowder (2015), Daniel Jones (2019), Chris Rumph II (2021), Michael Carter II (2021), Noah Gray (2021) + 1 more

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): David Helton (2014)

+21.9

77-97

2003–2007

Ted Roof Steady

Ted Roof held the Blue Devils at Regional Program V for 5 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−1.9 pts over 5 seasons · top 43% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Michael Desormeaux’s Louisiana run (2021–now)

13th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Carl Franks (1999–2003) · succeeded by David Cutcliffe (2008–2021).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Record & result
Record	2-3	2-9	1-10	0-12	1-11
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	#67	#55	#51	#77
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	44.9	39.5	46.5	50.5
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	10	13	11	7
Defense	—	11	18	16	47
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	40.4	38.2	40.1	52.7
Red-zone pass%	—	48.2	25.3	45.1	55.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	36.4	30.4	45.2	37.5

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Andrew Strojny (2004)

−1.9

6-45

1999–2003

Carl Franks Steady

Carl Franks slid the Blue Devils from Regional Program III to Regional Program V in 5 seasons.

−7.2 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Stan Drayton’s Temple run (2022–2024)

12th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Fred Goldsmith (1994–1998) · succeeded by Ted Roof (2003–2007).

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Grows Safety from high school

100%

#201 of 218 stints

2 NFL Draft picks: Chris Combs (2000), Andrew Strojny (2004)

−7.2

7-45

1994–1998

Fred Goldsmith Steady

Fred Goldsmith slid Duke from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 5 seasons.

−2.1 pts over 5 seasons · top 44% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tom Lichtenberg’s Ohio run (1990–1994)

11th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Barry Wilson (1990–1993) · succeeded by Carl Franks (1999–2003).

Season	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998
Record & result
Record	8-4	3-8	0-11	2-9	4-7
Postseason	L bowl	—	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1994: Lost to Wisconsin 20-34 Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Patrick Mannelly (1998), Lennie Friedman (1999)

−2.1

17-39

1990–1993

Barry Wilson Steady

Barry Wilson slid Duke from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 4 seasons.

−4.6 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 39% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rick Neuheisel’s Colorado run (1995–1998)

10th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Spurrier (1987–1989) · succeeded by Fred Goldsmith (1994–1998).

−4.6

13-30-1

1987–1989

Steve Spurrier Steady

Steve Spurrier moved the Blue Devils from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

+5.4 pts over 3 seasons · top 13% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Doug Marrone’s Syracuse run (2009–2012)

9th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Sloan (1983–1986) · succeeded by Barry Wilson (1990–1993).

Season	1987	1988	1989
Record & result
Record	5-6	7-3-1	8-4
Postseason	—	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1989: Lost to Texas Tech 21-49 Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Anthony Dilweg (1989)

+5.4

20-13-1

1983–1986

Steve Sloan Steady

Steve Sloan slid the Blue Devils from Regional Program I to Regional Program III in 4 seasons.

−8.2 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 20% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Danny Ford’s Arkansas run (1993–1997)

8th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Red Wilson (1979–1982) · succeeded by Steve Spurrier (1987–1989).

2 NFL Draft picks: Ben Bennett (1984), Mike Junkin (1987)

−8.2

13-31

1979–1982

Red Wilson Steady

Red Wilson held the Blue Devils at Regional Program I for 4 seasons.

+0.7 pts over 4 seasons · top 31% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Lou Tepper’s Illinois run (1992–1996)

7th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Mike McGee (1971–1978) · succeeded by Steve Sloan (1983–1986).

4 NFL Draft picks: Cedric Jones (1982), Charles Bowser (1982), Dennis Tabron (1982), Chris Castor (1983)

+0.7

16-27-1

1971–1978

Mike McGee Steady

Mike McGee slid the Blue Devils from National Program III to Regional Program I in 8 seasons.

−3.9 pts over 8 seasons · bottom 28% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bill Lynch’s Ball State run (1995–2002)

6th-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Tom Harp (1966–1970) · succeeded by Red Wilson (1979–1982).

7 NFL Draft picks: Ernie Jackson (1972), Steve Jones (1973), Ed Newman (1973), Bill Bryan (1977), Tony Benjamin (1977), Bob Grupp (1977), Lyman Smith (1978)

−3.9

37-47-4

1966–1970

Tom Harp Steady

Tom Harp slid Duke from Power Program III to National Program I in 5 seasons.

−12.5 pts over 5 seasons · bottom 6% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Curley Hallman’s LSU run (1991–1994)

3rd-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Murray (1951–1965) · succeeded by Mike McGee (1971–1978).

7 NFL Draft picks: Bob Matheson (1967), Dave Dunaway (1967), Andy Beath (1968), Al Woodall (1969), Leo Hart (1971), Phil Asack (1971), Wes Chesson (1971)

−12.5

22-28-1

1951–1965

Bill Murray Steady

Bill Murray slid the Blue Devils from Power Program II to Power Program III in 15 seasons.

−7.7 pts over 15 seasons · bottom 8% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Rick Stockstill’s Middle Tennessee run (2006–2023)

2nd-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Followed Wallace Wade (1946–1950) · succeeded by Tom Harp (1966–1970).

−7.7

93-51-9

1936–1941, 1946–1950

Wallace Wade Steady

Wallace Wade held Duke at Power Program I for 11 seasons.

1st-best Duke tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Bill Murray (1951–1965).

Power Program I

74-25-5