Regular season ·

TCU beat Baylor

TCU5-616
Baylor5-69Final
Sat, Nov 17 · McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas · Crowd 45,140 · 63°FS1

Records are after this game.

TCU beat Baylor by 7 points.

How the game turned

TCU aheadBaylor aheadBiggest swingLow: 32%
1234

Q3 2:02 TCU 16, Baylor 9

TCU 82% to win

Reagor 37-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 16-9

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 12:11 · TCU 3, Baylor 0Song 29-yd field goal, TCU goes ahead 3-0
  2. 2Q1 5:02 · TCU 3, Baylor 6TCU's win chance fell from 49% to 45%.Brewer 7-yd TD run, blocked, Baylor goes ahead 6-3
  3. 3Q2 13:05 · TCU 9, Baylor 6TCU's win chance rose from 49% to 57%.Muehlstein 65-yd TD pass to Reagor, blocked, TCU goes ahead 9-6
  4. 4Q3 2:02 · TCU 16, Baylor 9TCU's win chance rose from 58% to 82%.Reagor 37-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 16-9

TCU's lowest chance to win was 32 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 2:02 left in the 3rd quarter, TCU's chance to win went from 58 percent to 81 percent when TCU scored a touchdown.

The score went from TCU 9, Baylor 9 to TCU 16, Baylor 9.

The play: Reagor 37-yd TD run, TCU goes ahead 16-9.

What happened next

  1. TCU's next game: W 31-24 vs Oklahoma State, Nov 24

    7 days later

  2. Baylor's next game: W 35-24 vs Texas Tech, Nov 24

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 17, 2018: Baylor 29, TCU 23, Nov 9, 2019

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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