Regular season ·
Boise State beat Fresno State
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Boise State had a 8 percent chance to win with 11:42 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 24-17, November 9, 2018.
How the game turned
Q4 9:22 Boise State 24, Fresno State 17
Boise State 83% to win
Rypien 49-yd TD pass to Shakir, Boise State goes ahead 24-17
Big moments
- 1Q1 6:37 · Boise State 3, Fresno State 0Hoggarth 35-yd field goal, Boise State goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q2 14:12 · Boise State 3, Fresno State 7Boise State's win chance fell from 49% to 31%.McMaryion 3-yd TD pass to Johnson, Fresno State goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q4 14:57 · Boise State 17, Fresno State 17Boise State's win chance rose from 26% to 48%.Mattison 1-yd TD run, ties it 17-17
- 4Q4 9:22 · Boise State 24, Fresno State 17Boise State's win chance rose from 48% to 83%.Rypien 49-yd TD pass to Shakir, Boise State goes ahead 24-17
Boise State's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 9:22 left in the 4th quarter, Boise State's chance to win went from 48 percent to 83 percent when Boise State scored a touchdown.
The score went from Boise State 17, Fresno State 17 to Boise State 24, Fresno State 17.
The play: Rypien 49-yd TD pass to Shakir, Boise State goes ahead 24-17.
What happened next
Boise State's next game: W 45-14 at New Mexico, Nov 16
7 days laterFresno State's next game: W 23-14 vs San Diego State, Nov 17
8 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Nov 9, 2018: Fresno State 19, Boise State 16, Dec 1, 2018
22 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.