Regular season ·

Auburn beat Alabama

No. 5 Alabama10-245
No. 16 Auburn9-348Final
Sat, Nov 30 · Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala. · Crowd 87,451CBS

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

No. 16 Auburn beat No. 5 Alabama by 3 points.

How the game turned

Auburn aheadAlabama aheadBiggest swing
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Q4 8:08 Auburn 48, Alabama 45

Auburn 58% to win

Shivers 11-yd TD run, two-point try good, Auburn goes ahead 48-45

Big moments

  1. 1Q2 4:12 · Auburn 17, Alabama 24Auburn's win chance fell from 40% to 25%.Jones 3-yd TD pass to Ruggs, Alabama goes ahead 24-17
  2. 2Q2 0:33 · Auburn 24, Alabama 31Auburn's win chance fell from 28% to 23%.Jones 58-yd TD pass to Waddle, Alabama goes ahead 31-24
  3. 3Q3 6:31 · Auburn 37, Alabama 31Auburn's win chance rose from 35% to 60%.McClain return TD, Auburn goes ahead 37-31
  4. 4Q3 4:57 · Auburn 37, Alabama 38Auburn's win chance fell from 59% to 40%.Jones 12-yd TD pass to Waddle, Alabama goes ahead 38-37
  5. 5Q3 0:49 · Auburn 40, Alabama 38Auburn's win chance rose from 50% to 58%.Carlson 44-yd field goal, Auburn goes ahead 40-38
  6. 6Q4 13:44 · Auburn 40, Alabama 45Auburn's win chance fell from 49% to 20%.Jones 28-yd TD pass to Waddle, Alabama goes ahead 45-40
  7. 7Q4 8:08 · Auburn 48, Alabama 45Auburn's win chance rose from 25% to 58%.Shivers 11-yd TD run, two-point try good, Auburn goes ahead 48-45

Auburn's lowest chance to win was 18 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 8:08 left in the 4th quarter, Auburn's chance to win went from 25 percent to 58 percent when Auburn scored a touchdown.

The score went from Auburn 40, Alabama 45 to Auburn 48, Alabama 45.

The play: Shivers 11-yd TD run, two-point try good, Auburn goes ahead 48-45.

What happened next

  1. Auburn's next game: L 24-31 vs Minnesota in the Outback Bowl, Jan 1

    32 days later

  2. Alabama's next game: W 35-16 vs Michigan in the VRBO Citrus Bowl, Jan 1

    32 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 30, 2019: Alabama 42, Auburn 13, Nov 28, 2020

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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