Regular season ·
Arkansas beat Mississippi State
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Arkansas beat No. 16 Mississippi State by 7 points.
Mississippi State was No. 16 in the AP poll before the game; Arkansas was not ranked.
How the game turned
Q4 (no clock) Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 14
Arkansas 78% to win
K.J. Costello pass intercepted Joe Foucha return for 26 yds
Big moments
- 1Q1 15:00 · Arkansas 7, Mississippi State 0Arkansas's win chance rose from 10% to 24%.Brooks return TD, Arkansas goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 5:27 · Arkansas 14, Mississippi State 7Arkansas's win chance rose from 26% to 40%.Franks 19-yd TD pass to Warren, Arkansas goes ahead 14-7
- 3Q3 3:50 · Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 14Arkansas's win chance fell from 76% to 60%.Johnson 6-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-14
Arkansas's lowest chance to win was 10 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
In the 4th quarter, Arkansas's chance to win went from 43 percent to 78 percent on an interception.
The score stayed Arkansas 21, Mississippi State 14.
It was Arkansas's first win over Mississippi State since the 2016 season, after 3 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.
What happened next
Arkansas's next game: L 28-30 at Auburn, Oct 10
7 days laterMississippi State's next game: L 2-24 at Kentucky, Oct 10
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 3, 2020: Arkansas 31, Mississippi State 28, Nov 6, 2021
about 13 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.