Regular season ·

North Carolina beat Wake Forest

No. 10 Wake Forest8-155
North Carolina5-458Final
Sat, Nov 6 · Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C. · Crowd 50,500 · 52°, mainly clearABC

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

North Carolina trailed Wake Forest by 18 points in the 3rd quarter and won 58-55, November 6, 2021.

How the game turned

North Carolina aheadWake Forest aheadBiggest swingLow: 5%
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Q4 (no clock) North Carolina 51, Wake Forest 48

North Carolina 73% to win

Hartman incomplete, turnover on downs

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 9:47 · North Carolina 7, Wake Forest 3North Carolina's win chance rose from 59% to 63%.Howell 18-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 7-3
  2. 2Q1 6:46 · North Carolina 7, Wake Forest 10North Carolina's win chance fell from 56% to 48%.Hartman 6-yd TD run, Wake Forest goes ahead 10-7
  3. 3Q1 3:29 · North Carolina 14, Wake Forest 10North Carolina's win chance rose from 55% to 62%.Howell 12-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 14-10
  4. 4Q2 14:53 · North Carolina 14, Wake Forest 17North Carolina's win chance fell from 61% to 47%.Hartman 15-yd TD pass to Roberson, Wake Forest goes ahead 17-14
  5. 5Q2 9:41 · North Carolina 21, Wake Forest 17North Carolina's win chance rose from 46% to 59%.Chandler 1-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 21-17
  6. 6Q2 8:25 · North Carolina 21, Wake Forest 24North Carolina's win chance fell from 57% to 46%.Hartman 32-yd TD pass to Perry
  7. 7Q4 10:29 · North Carolina 48, Wake Forest 48North Carolina's win chance rose from 32% to 50%.Chandler 21-yd TD run, ties it 48-48
  8. 8Q4 2:12 · North Carolina 51, Wake Forest 48North Carolina's win chance rose from 50% to 66%.Atkins 25-yd field goal, North Carolina goes ahead 51-48
  9. 9Q4 (no clock) · North Carolina 51, Wake Forest 48North Carolina's win chance rose from 54% to 73%.Hartman incomplete, turnover on downs

North Carolina's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

In the 4th quarter, North Carolina's chance to win went from 54 percent to 73 percent on a failed fourth down.

The score stayed North Carolina 51, Wake Forest 48.

The play: Wake Forest on 4th down, Hartman incomplete.

What happened next

  1. North Carolina's next game: L 23-30 at Pittsburgh, Nov 11

    5 days later

  2. Wake Forest's next game: W 45-42 vs NC State, Nov 13

    7 days later

  3. The teams' next meeting after Nov 6, 2021: North Carolina 36, Wake Forest 34, Nov 12, 2022

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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