Regular season ·

NC State beat North Carolina

North Carolina6-630
No. 24 NC State9-334Final
Fri, Nov 26 · Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, N.C. · Crowd 56,919 · 42°, clearESPN

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

NC State had a 8 percent chance to win with 6:00 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 34-30, November 26, 2021.

How the game turned

NC State aheadNorth Carolina aheadBiggest swing
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Q4 1:35 NC State 28, North Carolina 30

NC State 55% to win

Leary 64-yd TD pass to Emezie, cuts it to 30-28

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 13:37 · NC State 7, North Carolina 0NC State's win chance rose from 71% to 79%.C.J. Riley 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Christopher Dunn Kick)
  2. 2Q3 9:05 · NC State 14, North Carolina 17NC State's win chance fell from 60% to 49%.Howell 12-yd TD run, North Carolina goes ahead 17-14
  3. 3Q3 0:32 · NC State 21, North Carolina 24NC State's win chance rose from 20% to 41%.Leary 26-yd TD pass to Thomas, cuts it to 24-21
  4. 4Q4 1:35 · NC State 28, North Carolina 30NC State's win chance rose from 10% to 55%.Leary 64-yd TD pass to Emezie, cuts it to 30-28
  5. 5Q4 1:09 · NC State 34, North Carolina 30NC State's win chance rose from 55% to 63%.Leary 24-yd TD pass to Emezie, two-point try fails, NC State goes ahead 34-30

NC State's lowest chance to win was 8 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

With 1:35 left in the 4th quarter, NC State's chance to win went from 10 percent to 55 percent when NC State scored a touchdown.

The score went from NC State 21, North Carolina 30 to NC State 28, North Carolina 30.

The play: Leary 64-yd TD pass to Emezie, cuts it to 30-28.

What happened next

  1. North Carolina's next game: L 21-38 vs South Carolina in the Duke's Mayo Bowl, Dec 30

    34 days later

  2. NC State finished the 2021 season 9-3, No. 18 in the last AP poll before the bowls.

  3. NC State's first game of the 2022 season: W 21-20 at East Carolina, Sep 3, 2022

    about 9 months later

  4. The teams' next meeting after Nov 26, 2021: NC State 30, North Carolina 27, Nov 25, 2022

    about 12 months later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

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