Regular season ·
Navy beat UCF
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Navy beat No. 17 UCF by 3 points.
UCF was No. 17 in the AP poll before the game; Navy was not ranked.
How the game turned
Q4 (no clock) Navy 17, UCF 14
Navy 60% to win
Keene incomplete, turnover on downs
Big moments
- 1Q1 8:20 · Navy 7, UCF 0Navy's win chance rose from 26% to 30%.Arline 1-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 1:33 · Navy 14, UCF 6Navy's win chance rose from 35% to 46%.Terrell 8-yd TD run, Navy leads 14-6
- 3Q3 (no clock) · Navy 14, UCF 14Navy's win chance rose from 23% to 41%.Keene sacked for a 4-yd loss
- 4Q3 8:22 · Navy 17, UCF 14Navy's win chance rose from 33% to 36%.Nichols 45-yd field goal, Navy goes ahead 17-14
- 5Q4 (no clock) · Navy 17, UCF 14Navy's win chance rose from 34% to 60%.Keene incomplete, turnover on downs
Navy's lowest chance to win was 15 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
In the 4th quarter, Navy's chance to win went from 34 percent to 60 percent on a failed fourth down.
The score stayed Navy 17, UCF 14.
The play: UCF on 4th down, Keene incomplete.
What happened next
UCF's next game: W 46-39 at South Florida, Nov 26
7 days laterNavy's next game: L 17-20 vs Army, Dec 10
21 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.