Regular season ·
Jacksonville State beat Western Kentucky
Records are after this game.
Jacksonville State had a 5 percent chance to win in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 20-17, October 17, 2023.
How the game turned
Q4 0:00 Jacksonville State 20, Western Kentucky 17
Jacksonville State 100% to win
Karajic 41-yd field goal, Jacksonville State wins it 20-17
Big moments
- 1Q1 8:52 · Jacksonville State 0, Western Kentucky 7Jacksonville State's win chance fell from 20% to 17%.Reed 10-yd TD pass to Smith, Western Kentucky goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 8:36 · Jacksonville State 7, Western Kentucky 17Jacksonville State's win chance fell from 23% to 13%.Reed 3-yd TD pass to Helms, Western Kentucky leads 17-7
- 3Q4 4:40 · Jacksonville State 17, Western Kentucky 17Jacksonville State's win chance rose from 14% to 40%.Lewis 26-yd TD run, ties it 17-17
- 4Q4 0:00 · Jacksonville State 20, Western Kentucky 17Jacksonville State's win chance rose from 72% to 100%.Karajic 41-yd field goal, Jacksonville State wins it 20-17
Jacksonville State's lowest chance to win was 5 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:00 left in the 4th quarter, Jacksonville State's chance to win went from 72 percent to 99 percent when Jacksonville State kicked a field goal.
The score went from Jacksonville State 17, Western Kentucky 17 to Jacksonville State 20, Western Kentucky 17.
The play: Karajic 41-yd field goal, Jacksonville State wins it 20-17.
What happened next
Western Kentucky's next game: L 29-42 vs Liberty, Oct 24
7 days laterJacksonville State's next game: W 41-16 at Florida International, Oct 25
8 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 17, 2023: Western Kentucky 19, Jacksonville State 17, Nov 30, 2024
about 13 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.