MAC Championship ·
MAC Championship
Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.
Miami (OH) beat No. 23 Toledo by 9 points, the MAC Championship.
Toledo was No. 23 in the AP poll before the game; Miami (OH) was not ranked.
It was played at a neutral site: Ford Field, Detroit, MI.
How the game turned
Q4 2:41 Miami (OH) 23, Toledo 14
Miami (OH) 91% to win
Amos 10-yd TD run, Miami (OH) leads 23-14
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:40 · Miami (OH) 3, Toledo 0Nicholson 33-yd field goal, Miami (OH) goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q1 0:46 · Miami (OH) 10, Toledo 0Miami (OH)'s win chance rose from 45% to 61%.Amos 1-yd TD run, Miami (OH) leads 10-0
- 3Q3 9:00 · Miami (OH) 13, Toledo 14Miami (OH)'s win chance fell from 47% to 38%.Finn 3-yd TD run, Toledo goes ahead 14-13
- 4Q4 13:27 · Miami (OH) 16, Toledo 14Miami (OH)'s win chance rose from 36% to 56%.Nicholson 40-yd field goal, Miami (OH) goes ahead 16-14
- 5Q4 2:41 · Miami (OH) 23, Toledo 14Miami (OH)'s win chance rose from 68% to 91%.Amos 10-yd TD run, Miami (OH) leads 23-14
Miami (OH)'s lowest chance to win was 30 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 2:41 left in the 4th quarter, Miami (OH)'s chance to win went from 68 percent to 91 percent when Miami (OH) scored a touchdown.
The score went from Miami (OH) 16, Toledo 14 to Miami (OH) 23, Toledo 14.
The play: Amos 10-yd TD run, Miami (OH) leads 23-14.
What happened next
Miami (OH)'s next game: L 9-13 vs App State in the Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl, Dec 16
14 days laterToledo's next game: L 15-16 vs Wyoming in the Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, Dec 30
28 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Dec 2, 2023: Toledo 30, Miami (OH) 20, Oct 5, 2024
about 10 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.