Regular season ·
Arkansas State beat South Alabama
Records are after this game.
Arkansas State had a 9 percent chance to win with 1:43 left in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 18-16, October 5, 2024.
How the game turned
Q4 0:10 Arkansas State 18, South Alabama 16
Arkansas State 15% to win
Van Andel 34-yd field goal, Arkansas State goes ahead 18-16
Big moments
- 1Q1 4:43 · Arkansas State 3, South Alabama 0Van Andel 20-yd field goal, Arkansas State goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q3 1:09 · Arkansas State 9, South Alabama 10Arkansas State's win chance fell from 51% to 25%.Lopez 75-yd TD pass to Pritchett, South Alabama goes ahead 10-9
- 3Q4 5:58 · Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 10Raynor 5-yd TD pass to Little, two-point try fails, Arkansas State goes ahead 15-10
- 4Q4 1:49 · Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 16Arkansas State's win chance fell from 12% to 11%.Lopez 26-yd TD pass to Pritchett, two-point try fails, South Alabama goes ahead 16-15
- 5Q4 0:10 · Arkansas State 18, South Alabama 16Arkansas State's win chance rose from 14% to 15%.Van Andel 34-yd field goal, Arkansas State goes ahead 18-16
Arkansas State's lowest chance to win was 9 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
How the lead changed
Arkansas State took the lead for good with 0:10 left in the 4th quarter, Arkansas State 18, South Alabama 16.
It was Arkansas State's first win over South Alabama since the 2018 season, after 5 straight losses in the series, counted since 1970 in our games data.
What happened next
Arkansas State's next game: L 9-41 at Texas State, Oct 12
7 days laterSouth Alabama's next game: W 25-9 vs Troy, Oct 15
10 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 5, 2024: Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14, Oct 14, 2025
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.