Regular season ·

California beat Louisville

California6-429
No. 14 Louisville7-226Final
Sat, Nov 8 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, Ky. · Crowd 51,381 · 59°, cloudyESPN2

Records are after this game. Rankings are the AP poll before it.

California beat No. 14 Louisville by 3 points in overtime.

Louisville was No. 14 in the AP poll before the game; California was not ranked.

How the game turned

California aheadLouisville aheadBiggest swingLow: 4%
12345678

OT1 California 29, Louisville 26

California 100% to win

Sagapolutele 3-yd TD pass to De Jesus

Big moments

  1. 1Q1 5:11 · California 0, Louisville 7California's win chance fell from 7% to 4%.Watson 1-yd TD run, Louisville goes ahead 7-0
  2. 2Q2 11:01 · California 7, Louisville 10Ranvier 30-yd field goal, Louisville goes ahead 10-7
  3. 3Q2 2:34 · California 10, Louisville 13California's win chance fell from 14% to 9%.Ranvier 49-yd field goal, Louisville goes ahead 13-10
  4. 4Q2 0:07 · California 17, Louisville 13California's win chance rose from 15% to 20%.Raphael 2-yd TD run, California goes ahead 17-13
  5. 5Q3 0:23 · California 23, Louisville 20California's win chance rose from 23% to 29%.Meyer 26-yd field goal, California goes ahead 23-20
  6. 6Q4 11:08 · California 23, Louisville 23Ranvier 39-yd field goal, ties it 23-23
  7. 7OT1 · California 23, Louisville 26California's win chance fell from 72% to 32%.Ranvier 49-yd field goal, Louisville goes ahead 26-23
  8. 8OT1 · California 29, Louisville 26California's win chance rose from 10% to 100%.Sagapolutele 3-yd TD pass to De Jesus

California's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.

The biggest swing

In overtime, California's chance to win went from 10 percent to 99 percent when California scored a touchdown.

The score went from California 23, Louisville 26 to California 29, Louisville 26.

The play: Sagapolutele 3-yd TD pass to De Jesus.

What happened next

  1. Louisville's next game: L 19-20 vs Clemson, Nov 14

    6 days later

  2. California's next game: L 10-31 at Stanford, Nov 22

    14 days later

Related pages

Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.

Share: Post on X · Text it ·