Regular season ·
Cincinnati beat Kansas
Records are after this game.
Cincinnati had a 4 percent chance to win in the 4th quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 37-34, September 27, 2025.
How the game turned
Q4 0:29 Cincinnati 37, Kansas 34
Cincinnati 94% to win
Walker 2-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 37-34
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:42 · Cincinnati 0, Kansas 7Cincinnati's win chance fell from 28% to 15%.Daniels 93-yd TD pass to Henderson, Kansas goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 14:23 · Cincinnati 10, Kansas 7Rusnak 29-yd field goal, Cincinnati goes ahead 10-7
- 3Q2 7:09 · Cincinnati 17, Kansas 10Cincinnati's win chance rose from 48% to 57%.Sorsby 10-yd TD pass to Allen, Cincinnati goes ahead 17-10
- 4Q3 8:54 · Cincinnati 27, Kansas 20Cincinnati's win chance rose from 47% to 78%.Sorsby 14-yd TD pass to Allen, Cincinnati goes ahead 27-20
- 5Q3 1:24 · Cincinnati 30, Kansas 27Rusnak 24-yd field goal, Cincinnati goes ahead 30-27
- 6Q4 1:45 · Cincinnati 30, Kansas 34Cincinnati's win chance fell from 37% to 17%.Daniels 6-yd TD pass to Wentz, Kansas goes ahead 34-30
- 7Q4 0:29 · Cincinnati 37, Kansas 34Cincinnati's win chance rose from 27% to 94%.Walker 2-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 37-34
Cincinnati's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:29 left in the 4th quarter, Cincinnati's chance to win went from 27 percent to 94 percent when Cincinnati scored a touchdown.
The score went from Cincinnati 30, Kansas 34 to Cincinnati 37, Kansas 34.
The play: Walker 2-yd TD run, Cincinnati goes ahead 37-34.
What happened next
Cincinnati's next game: W 38-30 vs Iowa State, Oct 4
7 days laterKansas's next game: W 27-20 at UCF, Oct 4
7 days later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.