Regular season ·
Arkansas State beat Texas State
Records are after this game.
Arkansas State beat Texas State by 1 point.
How the game turned
Q4 0:07 Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30
Arkansas State 100% to win
Raynor 4-yd TD run, Arkansas State wins it 31-30
Big moments
- 1Q1 13:01 · Arkansas State 0, Texas State 7Arkansas State's win chance fell from 14% to 8%.Jackson 24-yd TD run, Texas State goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q2 10:29 · Arkansas State 10, Texas State 7Arkansas State's win chance rose from 28% to 33%.Van Andel 51-yd field goal, Arkansas State goes ahead 10-7
- 3Q3 0:13 · Arkansas State 10, Texas State 17Penalty, personal foul
- 4Q4 6:40 · Arkansas State 17, Texas State 17Arkansas State's win chance rose from 13% to 28%.Raynor 5-yd TD pass to Summers, ties it 17-17
- 5Q4 3:45 · Arkansas State 17, Texas State 24Arkansas State's win chance fell from 18% to 9%.Pare 4-yd TD run, Texas State goes ahead 24-17
- 6Q4 0:07 · Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30Arkansas State's win chance rose from 8% to 100%.Raynor 4-yd TD run, Arkansas State wins it 31-30
Arkansas State's lowest chance to win was 6 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 0:07 left in the 4th quarter, Arkansas State's chance to win went from 8 percent to 99 percent when Arkansas State scored a touchdown.
The score went from Arkansas State 24, Texas State 30 to Arkansas State 31, Texas State 30.
The play: Raynor 4-yd TD run, Arkansas State wins it 31-30.
What happened next
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.