Pat Narduzzi

Head coach · Pittsburgh
12th season · since 2015

At Pittsburgh86-64since 2015 · 6-3 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 57th of 132 jobsLast gameW 34-11vs Georgia Tech · Oct 31NextByethen vs Florida State · Fri Nov 13
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-3, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianPittsburghWest VirginiaWest VirginiaPenn StatePenn StateBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyPittsburgh when he took over: 38.6 (National Program I), its final 2014 readingtook overPittsburgh, 2015: 8-5, National Program IPittsburgh, 2015: 8-5, National Program I20158-5Pittsburgh, 2016: 8-5, National Program I20168-5Pittsburgh, 2017: 5-7, National Program I20175-7Pittsburgh, 2018: 7-7, National Program I20187-7Pittsburgh, 2019: 8-5, National Program I20198-5Pittsburgh, 2020: 6-5, National Program I20206-5Pittsburgh, 2021: 11-3, Power Program III202111-3Pittsburgh, 2022: 9-4, Power Program III20229-4Pittsburgh, 2023: 3-9, Power Program III20233-9Pittsburgh, 2024: 7-6, Power Program III20247-6Pittsburgh, 2025: 8-5, Power Program III20258-5Pittsburgh, 2026: 6-3, National Program IPittsburgh, 2026: 6-3, National Program I20266-3+7.3best: 2022gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-6

2015Military BowlL 28-442016Pinstripe BowlL 24-312018Sun BowlL 13-142019Quick Lane BowlW 34-302021Peach BowlL 21-312022Sun BowlW 37-352024GameAbove Sports BowlL 46-482025Military BowlL 17-23

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 34-11 vs. Georgia Tech Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-3
  • Hot seat5% 57th of 132
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextvs. Florida State Fri Nov 13 (no game this week)
  • Stature36th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 7%.

No game this week · vs. Florida State, Fri Nov 13, 7 pm ET ESPN · Florida State is 3-5 · First meeting between Narduzzi and Rick Stockstill as head coaches · Pittsburgh’s chance to win: 64% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Pittsburgh wins: 4%, 64th of 132Now: 5%If Pittsburgh loses: 7%, 45th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Pittsburgh wins: 4%, 64th of 132
  • Now: 5%
  • If Pittsburgh loses: 7%, 45th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

5% chance he’s out after the season · 57th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow10% had they lost10% had they lostLoss 7%Win 4%7%7%5%4%3%2%4%6%6%5%Pre1W vs. Miami (OH)W2W vs. UCFW3W vs. SyracuseW4W vs. BucknellW5W at Virginia TechW6L vs. North CarolinaL7L at Boston CollegeL8L at MiamiL9W vs. Georgia TechW10Chance to win vs. Florida State64%11Chance to win at Louisville26%12Chance to win at California84%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow10% had they lostLoss 7%Win 4%7%5%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 6-612%
  2. 7-56%
  3. 8-43%
  4. 9-31%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2015201720192021202320262015, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 115 FBS jobs2015, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 112th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 102nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 113 FBS jobs2016, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 83rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2017, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (4 games in): 12%, 40th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (5 games in): 11%, 44th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (6 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (7 games in): 14%, 33rd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (8 games in): 10%, 48th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (9 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): 12%, 42nd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): 12%, 40th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (12 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (12 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 110 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (4 games in): 13%, 41st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (5 games in): 14%, 40th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (6 games in): 10%, 46th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (7 games in): 11%, 42nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (7 games in): 11%, 44th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (10 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 3 (3 games in): 13%, 32nd-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (4 games in): 11%, 47th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (5 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (9 games in): 5%, 55th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 57th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 6 (5 games in): 15%, 21st-hottest of 67 FBS jobs2020, week 7 (6 games in): 17%, 19th-hottest of 69 FBS jobs2020, week 8 (7 games in): 17%, 20th-hottest of 74 FBS jobs2020, week 9 (7 games in): 17%, 20th-hottest of 76 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (8 games in): 12%, 33rd-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (8 games in): 12%, 33rd-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (9 games in): 11%, 45th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (10 games in): 10%, 48th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (10 games in): 10%, 48th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (11 games in): 7%, 59th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (11 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 70th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 82nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 97th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 96th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 9%, 49th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 9%, 50th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 40th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 19%, 30th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 21%, 23rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 17%, 32nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 25%, 16th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 28%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 24%, 16th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 25%, 16th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 25%, 16th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 25%, 16th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 53rd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 72nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (6 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 5%, 57th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 5%, 53rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 27%, 8th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 27%, 11th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 27%, 13th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 20%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 15%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 11%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 7%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 5%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 76th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 57th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2023, week 11▲ 2-8, outscored by 83Every season ended Cool, 2015–2022

Hottest: 2023, week 11 (28%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 2-8, outscored by 83

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 12 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 209 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 5% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,443 in years 3–9.

  • ▼ Cooler
    6-3, outscoring opponents by 109
  • ▼ Cooler
    $27.6M buyout (imputed from pay) · 3.8× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 6-3 after 9 games
3% pushed out over results · of 431 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 9 games
5% pushed out over results · of 209 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$27,570,374 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 3.8× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 8%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

A few stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Offense: 52nd of 138 per play. Defense: 37th.

Offense, per play52ndOffense, staying on schedule33rdDefense, per play37thDefense, big plays allowed138thWorstBest
Offense, per play52nd of 138Offense, staying on schedule33rd of 138Defense, per play37th of 138Defense, big plays allowed138th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Pittsburgh. The other two rows are where Pittsburgh stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Fri Nov 13vs. Florida State (3-5)ESPN64%
  2. Sat Nov 21at Louisville (5-3)26%
  3. Sat Nov 28at California (3-6)84%

Percent: Pittsburgh’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Pittsburgh stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

28th34th40thPreseason33rdMiami (OH) W 59-14Miami (OH) W 59-14W 59-14Miami (OH)34thUCF W 12-7UCF W 12-7W 12-7UCF34thSyracuse W 27-13Syracuse W 27-13W 27-13Syracuse34thBucknell W 59-0Bucknell W 59-0W 59-0Bucknell34thVirginia Tech W 35-33Virginia Tech W 35-33W 35-33Virginia Tech34thNorth Carolina L 17-21North Carolina L 17-21L 17-21North Carolina33rdBoston College L 21-27Boston College L 21-27L 21-27Boston College34thMiami L 23-52Miami L 23-52L 23-52Miami34thGeorgia Tech W 34-11Georgia Tech W 34-11W 34-11Georgia Tech36thBye36th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 34-11 vs. Georgia Tech3 headlines · 70th of 138Pat Narduzzi breaks down Pitt's 34-11 win over Georgia Tech 247Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 23-52 at Miami8 headlines · 47th of 138OPINION: Miami Hurricanes Silence Pitt, Pat Narduzzi as Mensah, Toney Fuel Heisman Hype On3
  3. Oct 12–18L 21-27 at Boston College2 headlines · 74th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 17-21 vs. North Carolina9 headlines · 43rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 35-33 at Virginia Tech13 headlines · 35th of 138Pitt emerges as top threat to Miami in ACC as Pat Narduzzi rips AP voters following win over Virginia Tech CBS Sports“It Was No Good”Pitt's Pat Narduzzi Addresses Virginia Tech FG Amid Growing Controversy, Oct 3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 59-0 vs. Bucknell2 headlines · 76th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Pittsburgh’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Above the median on both sides of the ball — 60th percentile offense, 66th percentile defense.

Pittsburgh, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —60th
efficiency — 60th percentile success rate, 2015–25
B-58th
Standard-downs success
B60th
Passing-downs success
B-54th
Trench push (line yards)
B-53rd
Red-zone scoring rate
B-58th
Power-success (short yardage)
C+48th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B
of which —66th
66th percentile SP+ defense, 2015–25
B+75th
Front-7 havoc
B+73rd
Secondary havoc
B+77th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+46th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.