Florida State at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh (6‑3) hosts Florida State (3‑5). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Pittsburgh (64%). Florida State’s offense is at the 95th percentile on explosive plays; Pittsburgh’s defense is at the 2nd.
How they got here
Last three games
Florida State · 3-5
Rated 82nd in our preseason ratings, 70th now, up 12 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Pittsburgh · 6-3
Rated 47th in our preseason ratings, 49th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 12-7 vs UCF No. 93 of 668 teams
won by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Florida State’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh, 93 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida State’s explosive plays against Pittsburgh’s defense
Florida State offense, 95th percentile · Pittsburgh defense, 2nd
Pittsburgh’s EPA/play against Florida State’s defense
Pittsburgh offense, 56th percentile · Florida State defense, 16th
Pittsburgh’s passing EPA against Florida State’s defense
Pittsburgh offense, 46th percentile · Florida State defense, 23rd
What’s at stake
Florida State
- Mike Norvell is 1-2 all-time against Pat Narduzzi.
Pittsburgh
- Pittsburgh is ranked #25, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Pittsburgh is coming off a 23-point win.
The series
Pittsburgh leads the series 7-5
12 meetings since 1971 · Pittsburgh won the last meeting
- 2025Pittsburgh 34-31
- 2023Florida State 24-7
- 2020Pittsburgh 41-17
- 2013Florida State 41-13
- 1983Pittsburgh 17-16
Each line is Pittsburgh’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Florida State
The chip · vs the committeeFans will tell you the sport changed its own rules to keep them out — that a perfect season and a conference title weren't enough because the committee decided, in a back room, that the Seminoles didn't pass an eye test. They expanded the Playoff the very next year; the bracket that would have included them came one season too late.
What this game touches
The 2023 snub and the wreckage it triggered. Florida State finished 13-0 and won the ACC, then the committee left it out of the four-team Playoff for one-loss Alabama and Texas — the only undefeated Power Five champ ever excluded. The roster gutted, opted out of the Orange Bowl, lost it 63-3, and cratered to 2-10 in 2024; a 5-7 stumble in 2025 (after starting the year beating Alabama and climbing to No. 7) showed the climb back isn't done.
Pittsburgh
The chip · vs the national mediaThe fanbase has heard the program written off as an afterthought for two decades and bristles every time, because Pitt was a national power before half the programs dismissing it existed. They don't want sympathy; they want the country to remember the receipts.
What this game touches
The forgotten power. Pitt won a national title in 1976 and produced Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino, then spent the modern era as an overlooked program whose history outweighs its present. The 2021 ACC title under Pat Narduzzi briefly broke the silence; the wound is that the country still acts like Pitt football is a question mark, not a heritage.
Best players
Florida State
- CJ Richard Jr. (DB) · 53 tackles
- Ashton Daniels (QB) · 1,968 passing yards
- Ashlynd Barker (DB) · 47 tackles
Pittsburgh
- Cruce Brookins (DB) · 61 tackles
- Cataurus Hicks (WR) · 698 receiving yards
- Jeremiah Marcelin (LB) · 53 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Pittsburgh fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (26th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Acrisure Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 90
Florida State at Pittsburgh · Friday, Nov. 13 · 7 pm ET · Acrisure Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Acrisure Stadium: noon Saturdays score 90, 3:30 pm 88, 7:30 pm 89.
- noon: 90, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 89, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Pittsburgh is worth +2.9 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 26th percentile.
63% at home, 50% on the road against FBS opponents (32-19 home, 22-22 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 732 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Pittsburgh
- Wk 5Wat Virginia Tech35-33
- Wk 6Lvs North Carolina17-21
- Wk 7Lat Boston College21-27
- Wk 8Lat Miami23-52
- Wk 9Wvs Georgia Tech34-11
Florida State
- Wk 4Wvs Central Arkansas34-7
- Wk 5Wvs Virginia38-7
- Wk 6Lat Louisville20-44
- Wk 7Lat Miami35-43
- Wk 9Lvs Clemson24-36
Power rating by week
Pittsburgh is rated 2.5 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Pittsburgh8th3-3
- Florida State17th1-4