The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Randy Edsall

Followed Ralph Friedgen. Randy Edsall held Maryland at National Program II for 5 seasons.

The journeyman
98–129
2000–2015 · 2 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 9th career season — faster than 5% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #630 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

UConn, 15 seasons
+0.0
Regional Program III → Regional Program V.
Maryland, 5 seasons
−7.5
National Program II → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%UConn2000–2021▲ 5.5ptMaryland2011–2015▼ 2.6pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
UConn10.7pt#118 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–1 against his rivals. Winless in 6 tries against Tom O'Brien.

Rivalry record
1–1
50.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
35–37
48.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–5
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Rutgers1–150%
The toughest matchup
vs. Tom O'Brien0–6
6 meetings, 2000–2012
’00 L’02 L’03 L’04 L’11 L’12 L
0% win rate across a real, 6-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–5 0.0%
Power Program
10–31 24.4%
National Program
21–55 27.6%
Regional Program
48–34 58.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.43
#285 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.55
#322 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2011–2015
Marylandcaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Randy Edsall held Maryland at National Program II for 5 seasons.

10th-best Maryland tenure of 21 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-36.5 pts
#206 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-0.4 pts
#103 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Ralph Friedgen (2001–2010) · succeeded by D.J. Durkin (2016–2017).

Season20112012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record2–104–87–67–62–4
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#41#47
Style — pass rate
Pass rate49.446.7
Coordinators
OCMike LocksleyMike Locksley
DCBrian StewartKeith Dudzinski
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense2418
Defense3354
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%46.539.9
Red-zone pass%34.138.6
4th-down go%opp. territory21.927.0
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Brian Stewart → Keith Dudzinski · 2015
33rd pct54th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Running back from high school
100%
#196 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Stanford 21–45 Foster Farms Bowl

9 NFL Draft picks: Torrey Smith (2011), Da'Rel Scott (2011), Kevin Dorsey (2013), Dex McDougle (2014), Stefon Diggs (2015), Darius Kilgo (2015), Sean Davis (2016), Yannick Ngakoue (2016) + 1 more

22–34
2000–2021
UConncaretaker
National Program II
Randy Edsall held UConn at National Program II for 15 seasons.

1st-best UConn tenure of 8 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-31.8 pts
#203 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-18.3 pts
#170 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Jim Mora (2022–2025).

Season2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record3–82–96–69–38–45–64–89–48–58–58–55–75–70–42–126–73–93–91–112–100–01–9
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#109#99#99#101#102#116#118#114
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.241.847.646.441.247.251.9
Coordinators
OCMike CummingsFrank VerducciFrank Verducci / David Corley Jr.Rhett LashleeJohn DunnFrank GiufreFrank GiufreFrank Giufre
DCAnthony PoindexterAnthony PoindexterAnthony PoindexterBilly CrockerBilly CrockerLou SpanosLou SpanosLou Spanos / Jarren Horton
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense7123172471
Defense44813680123
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%39.835.742.041.431.143.653.0
Red-zone pass%34.630.732.436.535.249.253.7
4th-down go%opp. territory25.026.136.746.048.327.333.3
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
2
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
7
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-5
#182 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′7″, 305 lbs
across 1 of 2 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.7 lbs
#69 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
6.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
20.1
position-weighted
Net
-13.8
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Valentin Senn (OT) from Colorado
Biggest loss: Marques Alexander (EDGE) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Cummings → Frank Verducci · 2015
7th pct12th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 39.8% → 35.7% (-4.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 27% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Rhett Lashlee → John Dunn · 2018
17th pct24th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.4% → 31.1% (-10.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 53% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: John Dunn → Frank Giufre · 2019
24th pct7th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 31.1% → 43.6% (+12.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 3% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Billy Crocker → Lou Spanos · 2019the system held
4th pct1st pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
100%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2015: Lost to Marshall 10–16 St. Petersburg Bowl

29 NFL Draft picks: Alfred Fincher (2005), Dan Orlovsky (2005), Deon Anderson (2007), Tyvon Branch (2008), Donald Thomas (2008), Donald Brown (2009), Darius Butler (2009), Will Beatty (2009) + 21 more

76–95