Steve Roberts
Now
Career arc
Bowls and playoffs: 0-1
2005New Orleans BowlL 19-31
Report card
Above the median offense — 56th percentile.
Arkansas State, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.
Offense
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
6-3 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against David Cutcliffe.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Called about what the situation called for.
2,352 run and pass snaps at Arkansas State, 2004–2010, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points. Play-by-play starts in 2004, so his earlier seasons there aren’t in it.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Three numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2010 roster arrived on his watch — 102 of 102 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
This coach's entire tenure (2002-2010) predates 2021, when transfer-portal tracking begins in this database. Portal usage cannot be measured for this tenure at all -- this is not the same as '0% portal'.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 54 of 199 signees (27%) across his 2002–2010 tenure, drawn from 15 states in all. Next: TX (32).
75% of his signees come from AR and its 6 border states (TX 32, TN 24, MS 17, LA 12, MO 10).
Off this map: 17 signees to the west (CA 17), 11 to the east (FL 8, AR 3) and 3 to the north (MN 2, IL).
- median hometown distance
- 254 mi
- within 100 mi
- 18%
- within 500 mi
- 74%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 12%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. None can be traced to who brought them in — there’s no roster record for these players here.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | R7.11 | Derek Newton | Offensive Tackle |  Houston Texans | Estimated |
| 2010 | R3.08 | Alex Carrington | Defensive End |  Buffalo Bills | Estimated |
| 2009 | R7.32 | David Johnson | Tight End |  Pittsburgh Steelers | Estimated |
| 2008 | R2.12 | Tyrell Johnson | Safety |  Minnesota Vikings | Estimated |
| 2007 | R6.01 | Oren O'Neal | Running Back |  Oakland Raiders | Estimated |
| 2004 | R6.14 | Corey Williams | Defensive Tackle |  Green Bay Packers | Estimated |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
Career
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
9th-best Arkansas State tenure of 12 by the numbers.
Followed Joe Hollis (1997–2001) · succeeded by Hugh Freeze (2011).
| Season | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||||
| Record | 6-7 | 5-7 | 3-8 | 6-6 | 6-6 | 5-7 | 6-6 | 4-8 | 4-8 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | L bowl | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||||
| Offense | — | — | 76 | 45 | 25 | 34 | 64 | 20 | 64 | |
| Defense | — | — | 8 | 74 | 79 | 44 | 63 | 57 | 40 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | — | 49.5 | 41.4 | 24.0 | 45.8 | 38.2 | 42.7 | 47.3 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | — | 53.8 | 33.3 | 40.0 | 57.4 | 44.4 | 42.2 | 35.9 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | — | — | 9.1 | — | 29.6 | 29.7 | 31.7 | 26.7 | |
All-time wins
Wins at programs this site tracks, 1936–present — one consistent count for every coach, not each program’s own historically reported total.
2nd all-time at Arkansas State
Was he good?
Only one of the usual three angles is measurable for this era — raised the program.
+4.8 pts at Arkansas State · #399 of 1290 · middle half