Now
Career arc
Report card
Bottom-quarter offense — 20th percentile.
Duke, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.
Offense
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0-4 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Al Groh.
Signature games
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he plays
Run/pass mix, by field position
Called about what the situation called for.
1,811 run and pass snaps at Duke, 2004–2007, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points. Play-by-play starts in 2004, so his earlier seasons there aren’t in it.
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Building the roster
Two numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
of his 2007 roster arrived on his watch — 30 of 30 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
This coach's entire tenure (2003-2007) predates 2021, when transfer-portal tracking begins in this database. Portal usage cannot be measured for this tenure at all -- this is not the same as '0% portal'.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Where he recruits
is his biggest recruiting state: 16 of 76 signees (21%) across his 2003–2007 tenure, drawn from 24 states in all. Next: FL (10).
50% of his signees come from GA and its 5 border states (FL 10, NC 7, SC 3, AL 1, TN 1).
Off this map: 4 signees to the west (CA, NV, others).
- median hometown distance
- 360 mi
- within 100 mi
- 9%
- within 500 mi
- 64%
- beyond 1,000 mi
- 9%
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
Career
Coaching career
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
15th-best Duke tenure of 15 by the numbers.
Followed Carl Franks (1999–2003) · succeeded by David Cutcliffe (2008–2021).
| Season | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 2-3 | 2-9 | 1-10 | 0-12 | 1-11 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | — | 10 | 13 | 11 | 7 | |
| Defense | — | 11 | 18 | 16 | 47 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | — | 40.4 | 38.2 | 40.1 | 52.7 | |
| Red-zone pass% | — | 48.2 | 25.3 | 45.1 | 55.8 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | — | 36.4 | 30.4 | 45.2 | 37.5 | |
Was he good?
Only one of the usual three angles is measurable for this era — raised the program.
-1.9 pts at Duke · #812 of 1290 · middle half