Regular season ·
Navy beat UCF
Records are after this game.
Navy had a 4 percent chance to win with 2:55 left in the 3rd quarter, by our win chance curve, and won 34-30, October 2, 2021.
How the game turned
Q4 3:09 Navy 34, UCF 30
Navy 63% to win
Ruoss 4-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 34-30
Big moments
- 1Q1 13:24 · Navy 0, UCF 7Navy's win chance fell from 12% to 9%.Keene 15-yd TD pass to Johnson, UCF goes ahead 7-0
- 2Q1 0:56 · Navy 7, UCF 13Navy's win chance fell from 18% to 13%.Johnson 16-yd TD run, blocked, UCF goes ahead 13-7
- 3Q4 3:09 · Navy 34, UCF 30Navy's win chance rose from 27% to 63%.Ruoss 4-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 34-30
Navy's lowest chance to win was 4 percent. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 3:09 left in the 4th quarter, Navy's chance to win went from 27 percent to 63 percent when Navy scored a touchdown.
The score went from Navy 27, UCF 30 to Navy 34, UCF 30.
The play: Ruoss 4-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 34-30.
What happened next
Navy's next game: L 24-31 vs SMU, Oct 9
7 days laterUCF's next game: W 20-16 vs East Carolina, Oct 9
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 2, 2021: Navy 17, UCF 14, Nov 19, 2022
about 14 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.