Sam Houston's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
- Win total 3.5 — line flat since open
- Sam Houston collapsed 37 spots in SP+ — the 2-10 record and 1% returning production hig…
Notre Dame lands 5-star OL Albert Simien over Texas A&M
How will these commitments impact Notre Dame’s future roster and competitiveness?
Read the full story →How past storylines turned out
Sam Houston's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Sam Houston's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Sam Houston's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
How it developed newest first
Sam Houston: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
why it mattersPhil Longo's first season opens with a 2-10 losing record, highlighting the challenge of maintaining momentum after Sam Houston's recent FBS reclassification and conference move. ~ our read
Sam Houston: the fanbase's identity shifting.
why it mattersPhil Longo begins his tenure with a 2-10 losing record, signaling a rebuild for Sam Houston, which remains one of the weaker programs in FBS despite its recent FBS reclassification. ~ our read
Sam Houston enters 2026 rated No. 135 in 2025 SP+ (-27.8), down 37 spots from 2024.
top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
why it mattersSam Houston collapsed 37 spots in SP+ — the 2-10 record and 1% returning production highlight a stark contrast to the program's FCS-to-FBS ascent, testing Phil Longo's ability to stabilize. ~ our read
Phil Longo took over as Sam Houston's head coach, replacing K.C. Keeler.
replaces 2-year head coach K.C. Keeler (12-12)
why it mattersPhil Longo replaces K.C. Keeler after a 2-10 season in his first year at Sam Houston, inheriting 94% returning QB production from the most-recent FCS-to-FBS ascender. ~ our read
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'the projection is underselling us' read — fans betting the season beats the preview number.
No coverage in this room yet.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter — efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 41 of 122 board posts (34%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (76 posts): 13% positive · 79% neutral · 8% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
The range consensus, not a gap
“Countdown to No. 1: No. 20 Sam Houston enters new era under Colquitt - San Antonio Express-News”