SMU's SP+ drop sparks debate over Rhett Lashlee's fourth season
- 3 new takes in the last 7 days
- Coverage leans bullish — but with real dissent
- Win total 8.5 — line flat since open
- SMU enters 2026 — the 11-spot SP+ drop from 2024 raises one question: can Rhett Lashlee…
How past storylines turned out
SMU's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
SMU's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
SMU's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
How it developed newest first
2 days ago
SMU win total fell from 9.5 to 9 (-0.5 wins) between Sep 19 and Sep 20, 2026 (tier C).NEW
win total down 0.5 — solo market signal, no peers moved the same direction
SMU: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
why it mattersRhett Lashlee's fifth season at SMU begins with a 9-4 record and a #25 AP finish, but the unease among fans suggests the program's national power status may not be. ~ our read
SMU enters 2026 rated No. 23 in 2025 SP+ (+13.4), down 11 spots from 2024.
why it mattersSMU enters 2026 — the 11-spot SP+ drop from 2024 raises one question: can Rhett Lashlee’s 4th season sustain the 9-4 winning record and Pony Express identity after a CFP appearance? ~ our read
SMU has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 9% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 18% a year ago.
a 29-9 record over the last three regular seasons
why it mattersSMU has reached elite-tier consistency — Rhett Lashlee's fourth season demands whether the 29-9 run is the start of sustained dominance or a fleeting peak. ~ our read
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
SMU’s drop in SP+ ranking suggests a potential lag in performance, possibly due to a weaker 2025 schedule or internal adjustments that may not yet be reflected in the model. Watch how SMU fares against early-season opponents like TCU and Baylor to see if the 2025 SP+ projection holds up in reality.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'the projection is underselling us' read — fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter — efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 172 of 1403 board posts (12%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The range the bull case vs the counter
“Can Louisville steal the second ACC playoff bid after win over SMU?”
“SMU's Rhett Lashlee Warns Turnover 'Narrative' Won't End After Louisville Loss”