Eli Drinkwitz

Head coach · Missouri
7th season · since 2020 · App State before

At Missouri52-31since 2020 · 6-2 this seasonHot seatCool4% · 64th of 132 jobsLast gameW 34-10at Arkansas · Oct 31Nextvs TexasSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · ESPN
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianApp StateMissouriKansasKansasPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelApp State when he took over: 33.7 (National Program II), its final 2018 readingtook overApp State, 2019: 12-1, National Program IIApp State, 2019: 12-1, National Program II201912-1+3.6Missouri when he took over: 41.6 (National Program I), its final 2019 readingtook overMissouri, 2020: 5-5, National Program IMissouri, 2020: 5-5, National Program I20205-5Missouri, 2021: 6-7, National Program I20216-7Missouri, 2022: 6-7, National Program II20226-7Missouri, 2023: 11-2, Power Program III202311-2Missouri, 2024: 10-3, Power Program III202410-3Missouri, 2025: 8-5, Power Program III20258-5Missouri, 2026: 6-2, Power Program IIIMissouri, 2026: 6-2, Power Program III20266-2+3.6best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-3

Missouri2021Armed Forces BowlL 22-242022Gasparilla BowlL 17-272023Cotton Bowl ClassicW 14-32024Music City BowlW 27-242025Gator BowlL 7-13

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 34-10 at Arkansas Sat Oct 31
  • This season6-2
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextvs. Texas Sat Nov 7
  • Stature27th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #23 → #19 up four
  • Playoff odds 20% → 27% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Texas

Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET ESPN · No. 10 Texas is 6-2 · First meeting between Drinkwitz and Steve Sarkisian as head coaches · Missouri’s chance to win: 45% (the site’s model)

His week

I'm not a candidate at Florida State”

Eli Drinkwitz on Florida State opening

On3 headline · Tue Nov 3
Mizzou Athletics · 3,222 views by Wednesday

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

Offense: 60th of 138 per play. Defense: 42nd.

Offense, per play60thOffense, big plays20thDefense, per play42ndDefense, opponents' starting field position8thWorstBest
Offense, per play60th of 138Offense, big plays20th of 138Defense, per play42nd of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position8th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Missouri. The other two rows are where Missouri stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Texas (6-2)ESPN45%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Georgia (7-1)ABC28%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Kentucky (7-1)60%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Oklahoma (4-4)73%

Percent: Missouri’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Missouri stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

22nd28th34thPreseason28thArkansas-Pine Bluff W 54-14Arkansas-Pine Bluff W 54-14W 54-14Arkansas-Pine…28thKansas W 38-21Kansas W 38-21W 38-21Kansas28thTroy W 27-17Troy W 27-17W 27-17Troy28thMississippi State L 24-31Mississippi State L 24-31L 24-31Mississippi S…28thFlorida W 45-17Florida W 45-17W 45-17Florida27thTexas A&M W 27-6Texas A&M W 27-6W 27-6Texas A&M27thOle Miss L 3-31Ole Miss L 3-31L 3-31Ole Miss27thArkansas W 34-10Arkansas W 34-10W 34-10Arkansas27th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 34-10 at Arkansas11 headlines · 42nd of 138Missouri's Eli Drinkwitz takes pride in continued rivalry dominance over Arkansas football Whole Hog Sports
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 3-31 at Ole Miss6 headlines · 47th of 138Missouri football coach Eli Drinkwitz defends fourth-and-goal decision to kick Columbia Daily Tribune
  4. Oct 5–11W 27-6 vs. Texas A&M17 headlines · 27th of 138Eli Drinkwitz reveals DJ Jones had ‘like 21 days’ to live before heart transplant Saturday Down South
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 45-17 vs. Florida6 headlines · 59th of 138Eli Drinkwitz not interested in top-25 record, ending skid: ‘That's just noise’ Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 24-31 at Mississippi State7 headlines · 52nd of 138What is Missouri’s record on the road vs ranked teams under Eli Drinkwitz? Columbia Daily Tribune

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Missouri’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Above the median on both sides of the ball — 67th percentile offense, 74th percentile defense.

Missouri, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B
of which —67th
efficiency — 67th percentile success rate, 2020–25
B64th
Standard-downs success
B+71st
Passing-downs success
C+49th
Trench push (line yards)
B+76th
Red-zone scoring rate
B-56th
Power-success (short yardage)
B65th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B+
of which —74th
74th percentile SP+ defense, 2020–25
B+78th
Front-7 havoc
B+75th
Secondary havoc
B69th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-35th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

4%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool64th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20202021202220232024202520262020, week 6 (3 games in): 1%, 57th-hottest of 67 FBS jobs2020, week 7 (3 games in): 1%, 54th-hottest of 69 FBS jobs2020, week 8 (4 games in): 1%, 62nd-hottest of 74 FBS jobs2020, week 9 (5 games in): 1%, 62nd-hottest of 76 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (5 games in): 1%, 76th-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (5 games in): 1%, 79th-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (6 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (7 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (8 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (9 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (10 games in): <1%, 100th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 56th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 10%, 48th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 12%, 41st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 12%, 42nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 45th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 9.6%, 48th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 9%, 51st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 34th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 16%, 34th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 16%, 33rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 19.6%, 28th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 19.6%, 26th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 16%, 33rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 16%, 31st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 14%, 29th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 11%, 38th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 11%, 38th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 11%, 38th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 69th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 61st-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 71st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 98th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 81st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 62nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2023–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    6-2, outscoring opponents by 105 · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 7 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    18-8 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 6-2 after 8 games
2% pushed out over results · of 389 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$28,875,685 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.2× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

4%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled45th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $9 million in 2025, the 91st percentile of published FBS head-coach pay
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 80th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.