Does submitting your 1st quarter grades after you submitted your ED application help the decision?
Wake Forest is the 2nd best team in the ACC. HC and Offensive Coordinator are stars! Watch
Hire the Wake Forest coach …what he has done there is amazing
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 8th of 138 per play. Defense: 23rd.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Wake Forest. The other two rows are where Wake Forest stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7vs. MRMKMerrimack (4-5)100%
Sat Nov 14at SMUSMU (6-2)66%
Sat Nov 21at GTGeorgia Tech (2-6)96%
Sat Nov 28vs. DUKEDuke (6-2)73%
Percent: Wake Forest’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Wake Forest stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▲ Higher
Age 43 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
▲ Higher
His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 21.2 points a game · AP-ranked
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 17W 41-7 at CaliforniaJake Dickert is like when I play a dynasty game in NCAA on easy difficulty to make A G6 national champsWAKEWake Forest fan
Oct 10W 38-14 at NC StateDickert playing 4D chess going conservative so he can play Dave again next yearWAKEWake Forest fan
Oct 3W 57-3 vs. Stanfordthink dickert makes the PA intern run up the stairs for penalties too?WAKEWake Forest fan
Earlier weeks
Sep 26W 30-27 at LouisvilleSame. My cardiologist hates DickertWAKEWake Forest fan
Sep 18L 20-33 vs. MiamiGotta say, loving the fight in this team. Dickert is getting me excited to hopefully aim for something other than a minor bowl in the futureWAKEWake Forest fan
Several stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Merrimack
61st of 104 FBS head coaches · from several outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Most about: press conference and quotes, linked to another job, win.
/r/CFB Talks: Wazzu HC Jake Dickert (Wed @ 6pm ET), hbcu GameDay (Wed @ 9pm ET), @naiafball (Thu @ 4:30pm ET) — plus your calls on Tues nightAug 23
Jake Dickert's comments about Washington State "belonging" in the Power 5Sep 10
WSU Football: Jake Dickert leads WSU Fight Song after win over #14 Oregon State! 9/23/23Sep 28
[Feldman] Kansas' Lance Leipold and WAZZU's Jake Dickert have emerged as strong candidates in the early stages of the Michigan State coaching search, a source told The Athletic:Sep 29
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2022). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-2 against his rivals at Washington State. Nobody he faced three or more times there has a winning record against him.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’21’22’23’24
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUW
Washington · 2021
40-13
RivalQuality opponent
WWI
Wisconsin · 2022
17-14
UpsetQuality opponent
WUW
Washington · 2024
24-19
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LFR
Fresno State · 2022
6-29
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUW
Washington · 2022
33-51
Rival
LUW
Washington · 2023
21-24
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
6-1
85.7% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
15-6
+9.7 pts a game vs. the line
all 21 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
1-2 33.3%ATS —
National Program
9-3 75.0%ATS 10-2 12 of 12
Regional Program
5-0 100.0%ATS —
Signature games
2-2 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WMS
Mississippi State · 2025
43-29
UpsetQuality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WLO
Louisville · 2026
30-27
UpsetQuality opponent
WNC
NC State · 2026
38-14
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LFS
Florida State · 2025
7-42
LDU
Duke · 2025
32-49
LMI
Miami · 2026
20-33
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-2 against his rivals. Nobody he faced three or more times has a winning record against him.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’21’22’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUW
Washington · 2021
40-13
RivalQuality opponent
WWI
Wisconsin · 2022
17-14
UpsetQuality opponent
WUW
Washington · 2024
24-19
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LFR
Fresno State · 2022
6-29
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUW
Washington · 2022
33-51
Rival
LUW
Washington · 2023
21-24
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
832 run and pass snaps at Wake Forest, 2025–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Washington State14.0pt#130 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His one ranked Wake Forest class of his own finished #39 nationally.
WSWashington State
2022
#60
His class
2023
#63
His class
2024
#62
His class
WAWake Forest
2025
#63
Transition
2026
#39
His class
Across every program: 4 ranked classes of his own, averaging #56 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least8players
WSWashington State→WAWake Forest2025
At least 8 players followed him from Washington State to Wake Forest.
Carlos Hernandez WR
Chris Barnes WR
Connor Calvert PK
Devin Kylany OL
Fa'alili Fa'amoe OL
Frank Cusano LB
Jaylon Edmond DB
Rodrick Tialavea OL
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
78%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 91 of 116 players. The other 25 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 91Inherited 25
Of his own players on this roster, 30% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2025–2026Counting players who have since left: 38% of the 120 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
−3 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Washington State rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2022–2024). In the three seasons before he arrived, Washington State’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Washington State2022–2024−3 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
GATop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 9 of 53 signees (17%) across his 2025–2026 tenure, drawn from 18 states in all. Next: NC (8).
Where his signees came from, 2025–2026 (53 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
45% of his signees come from GA and its 5 border states (NC 8, FL 2, SC 2, TN 2, AL 1).
Off this map: 3 signees to the west (CA 2, OR).
By region
South
32
Northeast
8
Midwest
7
West
5
Roster distance from campus (Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, NC)
median hometown distance
414 mi
within 100 mi
12%
within 500 mi
60%
beyond 1,000 mi
17%
98 of 116 roster players with a known hometown (84% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
2Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 1 of them himself; 1 arrived under Dave Clawson.
His recruits 1Inherited 12 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R5.31
Karon Prunty
Cornerback
New England Patriots
2026
R6.17
Demond Claiborne
Running Back
Minnesota Vikings
recruited under Dave Clawson
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Hired into programs rated 26 to 27 (National Program III tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 2 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 3 lower. Median stay: 4 seasons; 1 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a National Program III job since 1990 (64): typically -1.9 after year 1, -3.2 after year 2.
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+25.3 pts
#21 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+36.8 pts
#3 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 235 lbs
across 46 of 57 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.0 lbs
#102 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
So
#246 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: AL (5), TX (4), GA (4), LA (3), NC (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
55.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.2
position-weighted
Net
-2.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Deshawn Purdie (QB) from Charlotte
Biggest loss: Jeremy Hecklinski (QB) to Iowa
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Wide receiver via the portal
63%
#44 of 243 stints
Buys Tackle via the portal
56%
#54 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2025: Beat Mississippi State 43-29 Duke's Mayo Bowl
AI Narratives — “Wake Forest's Inconsistent Finish” and 6 more on the team page.
Jake Dickert slid Washington State from National Program III to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.
−3.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 49% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
9th-best Washington State tenure of 21 by the numbers.
Followed Nick Rolovich (2020–2021) · succeeded by Jimmy Rogers (2025).
System Shift, on departure
swipe to see every season
Season
2021
2022
2023
2024
Trend
Record & result
Record
3-3
7-6
5-7
8-4
Postseason
L bowl
L bowl
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Craig Stutzmann / Brian Smith
Eric Morris
Ben Arbuckle
Ben Arbuckle
DC
Jake Dickert
Brian Ward
Jeff Schmedding
Jeff Schmedding
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
56
26
42
86
Defense
60
36
67
14
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
52.0
67.3
66.8
43.4
Red-zone pass%
49.0
61.8
56.2
39.2
4th-down go%opp. territory
50.0
45.9
37.1
50.0
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+3.5 pts
#96 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-5.0 pts
#127 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
37
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
117
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-80
#135 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 221 lbs
across 34 of 37 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.2 lbs
#216 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: CA (11), TX (7), WA (5), LA (2), NJ (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
54.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
59.7
position-weighted
Net
-5.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Cameron Ward (QB) from Incarnate Word
Biggest loss: Cameron Ward (QB) to Miami
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Eric Morris → Ben Arbuckle · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 67.3% → 66.8% (-0.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 58% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brian Ward → Jeff Schmedding · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tackle from high school
80%
#171 of 223 stints
Grows Quarterback from high school
78%
#178 of 206 stints
Postseason detail2021: Lost to Central Michigan 21-24 Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl2022: Lost to Fresno State 6-29 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
7 NFL Draft picks: Abraham Lucas (2022), Jaylen Watson (2022), Daiyan Henley (2023), Jaden Hicks (2024), Brennan Jackson (2024), Chau Smith-Wade (2024), Kyle Williams (2025)
23-20
Was he good?
Program lift
Year 2
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
Every angle here comes back inconclusive — not enough separation from zero to call it either way.
Raised the program
WS-0.8 pts at Washington State · #731 of 1290 · middle half
Beat his talent
Offense vs. talent
+7.9 pts
#70 of 208 · middle half · 5 covered seasons
Defense vs. talent
+3.4 pts
#85 of 208 · middle half · 5 covered seasons
His own effect, isolated?
Offense marginal impact
+0.28
not distinguishable from zero
Defense marginal impact
+0.09
not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coordinator years
Defensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.